Closing spread
NE -4
Total
47.5
Model margin
+3.5est.
NE perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.126EPA / play+0.090
- 47.0%Success rate47.3%
- +0.211EPA / dropback+0.181
- +0.001EPA / rush-0.031
- 12.5%Explosive rate10.7%
- +3.54CPOE+1.03
- 39.7%Third-down rate41.8%
- 70.7%Red-zone TD rate66.1%
- 2.31Points / drive2.32
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 12–5 since 1999
Meetings average 42.6 points. NE are 11-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 25/51 | 331 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melvin Gordon | 9 | 15 | 1.7 | 1 |
| Justin Jackson | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrell Williams | 5 | 7 | 94 | 0 |
| Keenan Allen | 2 | 6 | 75 | 1 |
| Mike Williams | 5 | 11 | 68 | 0 |
| Antonio Gates | 5 | 8 | 41 | 1 |
| Justin Jackson | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 3 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Travis Benjamin | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 34/44 | 343 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sony Michel | 24 | 129 | 5.4 | 3 |
| Rex Burkhead | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Julian Edelman | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Edelman | 9 | 13 | 151 | 0 |
| James White | 15 | 17 | 97 | 0 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 4 | 5 | 41 | 1 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0 |
| Chris Hogan | 3 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| Sony Michel | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.4%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.18
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+3.48