2018 · DIV

Final

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Philip Rivers

28·41

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 26°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

NE -4

Total

47.5

Model margin

+3.5est.

NE perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chargersedge mapPatriots
  • +0.126EPA / play+0.090
  • 47.0%Success rate47.3%
  • +0.211EPA / dropback+0.181
  • +0.001EPA / rush-0.031
  • 12.5%Explosive rate10.7%
  • +3.54CPOE+1.03
  • 39.7%Third-down rate41.8%
  • 70.7%Red-zone TD rate66.1%
  • 2.31Points / drive2.32
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 12–5 since 1999

Meetings average 42.6 points. NE are 11-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsLAC @ NE3–16NE
2024 · W17LAC @ NE40–7CHARGERS
2023 · W13LAC @ NE6–0CHARGERS
2021 · W8NE @ LAC27–24NE
2020 · W13NE @ LAC45–0NE
2017 · W8LAC @ NE13–21NE
2014 · W14NE @ SD23–14NE
2011 · W2SD @ NE21–35NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLAC–NE
NEQ1 15:001575Touchdown0–7
LACQ1 7:49672Touchdown7–7
NEQ1 4:56767Touchdown7–14
LACQ1 1:3531Punt7–14
NEQ1 0:24863Touchdown7–21
LACQ2 12:17729Punt7–21
NEQ2 9:12782Touchdown7–28
LACQ2 6:04426Punt7–28
NEQ2 4:1633Punt7–28
NEQ2 3:23435Touchdown7–35
LACQ2 1:4330Punt7–35
NEQ2 0:51522End of half7–35
LACQ3 15:0033Punt7–35
NEQ3 13:531357Field goal7–38
LACQ3 6:311252Touchdown14–38
NEQ3 1:16873Field goal14–41
LACQ4 12:2340Punt14–41
NEQ4 11:4739Punt14–41
LACQ4 9:39768Touchdown22–41
NEQ4 7:3834Punt22–41
LACQ4 5:04612Turnover22–41
NEQ4 4:1249Punt22–41
LACQ4 2:591272Touchdown28–41
NEQ4 0:5900End of half28–41

Box score

Individual performances

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Philip Rivers25/5133131

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Melvin Gordon9151.71
Justin Jackson144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyrell Williams57940
Keenan Allen26751
Mike Williams511680
Antonio Gates58411
Justin Jackson34220
Austin Ekeler35190
Melvin Gordon12110
Virgil Green1111
Travis Benjamin0200
Hunter Henry0100

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady34/4434310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Sony Michel241295.43
Rex Burkhead4123.01
Julian Edelman177.00
Cordarrelle Patterson133.00
Tom Brady2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julian Edelman9131510
James White1517970
Phillip Dorsett45411
Rob Gronkowski11250
Chris Hogan35130
Sony Michel1190
Rex Burkhead1170
Cordarrelle Patterson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.4%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.18
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+3.48