Closing spread
LAC -4.5
Total
38.5
Model margin
+0.0est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.070EPA / play-0.189
- 41.4%Success rate38.9%
- +0.018EPA / dropback-0.226
- -0.242EPA / rush-0.128
- 6.9%Explosive rate5.5%
- -1.84CPOE-3.39
- 38.3%Third-down rate30.8%
- 54.8%Red-zone TD rate52.2%
- 1.75Points / drive1.00
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 12–5 since 1999
Meetings average 42.6 points. NE are 11-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 22/37 | 212 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | 14 | 18 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Joshua Kelley | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Justin Herbert | 4 | -5 | -1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | 5 | 9 | 58 | 0 |
| Quentin Johnston | 5 | 7 | 52 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 4 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Alex Erickson | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Donald Parham | 2 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Joshua Kelley | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Jalen Guyton | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Stone Smartt | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Zappe | 13/25 | 141 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 17 | 52 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 9 | 39 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Tyquan Thornton | 1 | 39 | 39.0 | 0 |
| Bailey Zappe | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVante Parker | 4 | 9 | 64 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 4 | 5 | 40 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Jalen Reagor | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyquan Thornton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.1%
Expected total
40.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.57
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-2.25
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.03