2023 · Week 13

Final

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

6·0

Patriots

New England

QB Bailey Zappe

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 44°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

LAC -4.5

Total

38.5

Model margin

+0.0est.

NE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chargersedge mapPatriots
  • -0.070EPA / play-0.189
  • 41.4%Success rate38.9%
  • +0.018EPA / dropback-0.226
  • -0.242EPA / rush-0.128
  • 6.9%Explosive rate5.5%
  • -1.84CPOE-3.39
  • 38.3%Third-down rate30.8%
  • 54.8%Red-zone TD rate52.2%
  • 1.75Points / drive1.00
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 12–5 since 1999

Meetings average 42.6 points. NE are 11-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsLAC @ NE3–16NE
2024 · W17LAC @ NE40–7CHARGERS
2021 · W8NE @ LAC27–24NE
2020 · W13NE @ LAC45–0NE
2018 · playoffsLAC @ NE28–41NE
2017 · W8LAC @ NE13–21NE
2014 · W14NE @ SD23–14NE
2011 · W2SD @ NE21–35NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLAC–NE
NEQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
LACQ1 13:2435Punt0–0
NEQ1 11:551359Turnover0–0
LACQ1 4:1338Punt0–0
NEQ1 2:2036Punt0–0
LACQ1 1:16649Punt0–0
NEQ2 13:3332Punt0–0
LACQ2 11:35627Field goal3–0
NEQ2 9:09531Punt3–0
LACQ2 6:56922Punt3–0
NEQ2 2:023-1Punt3–0
LACQ2 1:3437Field goal6–0
NEQ2 0:4416End of half6–0
LACQ3 15:0030Punt6–0
NEQ3 14:361137Punt6–0
LACQ3 8:331157Punt6–0
NEQ3 3:23746Punt6–0
LACQ4 14:54724Punt6–0
NEQ4 10:13642Turnover on downs6–0
LACQ4 6:58522Punt6–0
NEQ4 4:36824Turnover on downs6–0
LACQ4 1:58322End of half6–0

Box score

Individual performances

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert22/3721200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Austin Ekeler14181.30
Joshua Kelley6162.70
Justin Herbert4-5-1.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keenan Allen59580
Quentin Johnston57520
Gerald Everett45440
Alex Erickson11230
Donald Parham24120
Austin Ekeler2390
Joshua Kelley2390
Jalen Guyton1350
Stone Smartt0100

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bailey Zappe13/2514100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott17523.10
Rhamondre Stevenson9394.30
Tyquan Thornton13939.00
Bailey Zappe4164.00
Ty Montgomery122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeVante Parker49640
Ezekiel Elliott45400
Hunter Henry24150
JuJu Smith-Schuster13110
Jalen Reagor11110
Rhamondre Stevenson1100
Tyquan Thornton0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -4.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

2.45%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.1%

Expected total

40.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.57
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.25
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.03