Closing spread
NE -6.5
Total
49.5
Model margin
+1.9est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.085EPA / play+0.137
- 44.9%Success rate49.2%
- +0.191EPA / dropback+0.254
- -0.082EPA / rush-0.042
- 10.3%Explosive rate9.4%
- +0.86CPOE+3.49
- 40.7%Third-down rate40.8%
- 66.7%Red-zone TD rate60.8%
- 1.87Points / drive2.52
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 12–5 since 1999
Meetings average 42.6 points. NE are 11-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 17/30 | 212 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melvin Gordon | 14 | 132 | 9.4 | 1 |
| Travis Benjamin | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Branden Oliver | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Benjamin | 5 | 9 | 64 | 1 |
| Keenan Allen | 4 | 5 | 61 | 0 |
| Antonio Gates | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Tyrell Williams | 1 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 32/47 | 333 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dion Lewis | 15 | 44 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Mike Gillislee | 11 | 34 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| James White | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James White | 5 | 6 | 85 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 7 | 7 | 68 | 0 |
| Chris Hogan | 5 | 7 | 60 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 5 | 9 | 57 | 1 |
| Brandin Cooks | 5 | 8 | 26 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 2 | 6 | 14 | 0 |
| Jacob Hollister | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
4.67%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.3%
Expected total
46.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.21
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.95