2017 · Week 8

Final

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Philip Rivers

13·21

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 62°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

NE -6.5

Total

49.5

Model margin

+1.9est.

NE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chargersedge mapPatriots
  • +0.085EPA / play+0.137
  • 44.9%Success rate49.2%
  • +0.191EPA / dropback+0.254
  • -0.082EPA / rush-0.042
  • 10.3%Explosive rate9.4%
  • +0.86CPOE+3.49
  • 40.7%Third-down rate40.8%
  • 66.7%Red-zone TD rate60.8%
  • 1.87Points / drive2.52
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 12–5 since 1999

Meetings average 42.6 points. NE are 11-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsLAC @ NE3–16NE
2024 · W17LAC @ NE40–7CHARGERS
2023 · W13LAC @ NE6–0CHARGERS
2021 · W8NE @ LAC27–24NE
2020 · W13NE @ LAC45–0NE
2018 · playoffsLAC @ NE28–41NE
2014 · W14NE @ SD23–14NE
2011 · W2SD @ NE21–35NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLAC–NE
LACQ1 15:00952Missed field goal0–0
NEQ1 8:4838Punt0–0
LACQ1 7:08288Touchdown7–0
NEQ1 6:151572Touchdown7–7
LACQ2 14:56416Punt7–7
NEQ2 12:39833Safety7–9
NEQ2 9:081051Field goal7–12
LACQ2 4:06432Punt7–12
NEQ2 2:00756Field goal7–15
LACQ2 0:2015End of half7–15
NEQ3 15:0030Missed field goal7–15
LACQ3 14:28817Punt7–15
NEQ3 10:521152Field goal7–18
LACQ3 5:25834Punt7–18
NEQ3 2:261565Missed field goal7–18
LACQ4 9:36437Touchdown13–18
NEQ4 8:30423Punt13–18
LACQ4 7:05617Punt13–18
NEQ4 4:411054Field goal13–21
LACQ4 1:08851Turnover13–21

Box score

Individual performances

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Philip Rivers17/3021211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Melvin Gordon141329.41
Travis Benjamin2147.00
Austin Ekeler284.00
Branden Oliver331.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Benjamin59641
Keenan Allen45610
Antonio Gates22250
Tyrell Williams16240
Austin Ekeler11130
Hunter Henry22110
Melvin Gordon1270
Mike Williams1270

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady32/4733310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dion Lewis15442.90
Mike Gillislee11343.10
Rex Burkhead4153.80
Tom Brady122.00
James White122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James White56850
Rex Burkhead77680
Chris Hogan57600
Rob Gronkowski59571
Brandin Cooks58260
Danny Amendola26140
Jacob Hollister11130
Dion Lewis22100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

4.67%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.3%

Expected total

46.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.21
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.95