Closing spread
LAC -6
Total
42
Model margin
-2.0est.
NE perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.044EPA / play-0.081
- 42.3%Success rate42.5%
- +0.127EPA / dropback-0.020
- -0.079EPA / rush-0.187
- 9.2%Explosive rate7.0%
- +1.69CPOE+1.54
- 40.1%Third-down rate35.0%
- 59.6%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
- 2.25Points / drive1.51
- 0.8%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 12–5 since 1999
Meetings average 42.6 points. NE are 11-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 26/38 | 281 | 3 | 0 |
| Taylor Heinicke | 0/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | 19 | 76 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Hassan Haskins | 8 | 30 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Kimani Vidal | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Justin Herbert | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Taylor Heinicke | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Derius Davis | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladd McConkey | 8 | 10 | 94 | 2 |
| Quentin Johnston | 5 | 8 | 48 | 0 |
| Josh Palmer | 4 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Derius Davis | 2 | 2 | 29 | 1 |
| Stone Smartt | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Will Dissly | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Hassan Haskins | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Tucker Fisk | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| DJ Chark | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Kimani Vidal | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 12/22 | 117 | 1 | 0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 1/2 | -2 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Gibson | 12 | 63 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Drake Maye | 6 | 32 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMario Douglas | 4 | 5 | 46 | 1 |
| Kayshon Boutte | 4 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Javon Baker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ja'Lynn Polk | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
3.07%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.7%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.48
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-2.02