2024 · Week 17

Final

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

40·7

Patriots

New England

QB Drake Maye

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 40°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

LAC -6

Total

42

Model margin

-2.0est.

NE perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chargersedge mapPatriots
  • +0.044EPA / play-0.081
  • 42.3%Success rate42.5%
  • +0.127EPA / dropback-0.020
  • -0.079EPA / rush-0.187
  • 9.2%Explosive rate7.0%
  • +1.69CPOE+1.54
  • 40.1%Third-down rate35.0%
  • 59.6%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
  • 2.25Points / drive1.51
  • 0.8%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 12–5 since 1999

Meetings average 42.6 points. NE are 11-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsLAC @ NE3–16NE
2023 · W13LAC @ NE6–0CHARGERS
2021 · W8NE @ LAC27–24NE
2020 · W13NE @ LAC45–0NE
2018 · playoffsLAC @ NE28–41NE
2017 · W8LAC @ NE13–21NE
2014 · W14NE @ SD23–14NE
2011 · W2SD @ NE21–35NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLAC–NE
LACQ1 15:00617Punt0–0
NEQ1 11:3734Punt0–0
LACQ1 9:331286Touchdown7–0
NEQ1 3:2132Punt7–0
LACQ1 1:581167Field goal10–0
NEQ2 10:15612Turnover10–0
LACQ2 8:35944Touchdown17–0
NEQ2 2:55573Touchdown17–7
LACQ2 1:24835Field goal20–7
NEQ2 0:0200End of half20–7
NEQ3 15:00411Punt20–7
LACQ3 12:571094Touchdown27–7
NEQ3 7:374-7Turnover on downs27–7
LACQ3 6:0230Field goal30–7
NEQ3 5:431321Turnover on downs30–7
LACQ3 2:181048Touchdown37–7
NEQ4 11:5845Punt37–7
LACQ4 10:54728Punt37–7
NEQ4 6:1749Turnover on downs37–7
LACQ4 5:2539Field goal40–7
NEQ4 3:47751End of half40–7

Box score

Individual performances

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert26/3828130
Taylor Heinicke0/2000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
J.K. Dobbins19764.01
Hassan Haskins8303.80
Kimani Vidal5244.80
Justin Herbert3124.00
Taylor Heinicke188.00
Derius Davis1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ladd McConkey810942
Quentin Johnston58480
Josh Palmer46410
Derius Davis22291
Stone Smartt22230
Will Dissly23210
Hassan Haskins11100
Tucker Fisk1180
J.K. Dobbins1170
DJ Chark0400
Kimani Vidal0200

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drake Maye12/2211710
Jacoby Brissett1/2-200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Antonio Gibson12635.30
Drake Maye6325.30
Rhamondre Stevenson210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeMario Douglas45461
Kayshon Boutte45280
Kendrick Bourne24220
Austin Hooper33190
Hunter Henry0200
Antonio Gibson0100
Rhamondre Stevenson0100
Javon Baker0100
Ja'Lynn Polk0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -63.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.7%4.1%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

3.07%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

43.7%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.48
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin-2.02