Closing spread
NE -3.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+4.9est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.016EPA / play+0.154
- 43.6%Success rate48.2%
- +0.021EPA / dropback+0.308
- -0.080EPA / rush-0.089
- 7.4%Explosive rate10.5%
- +0.01CPOE+10.94
- 46.7%Third-down rate43.3%
- 48.9%Red-zone TD rate63.4%
- 2.10Points / drive2.47
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 12–5 since 1999
Meetings average 42.6 points. NE are 11-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 19/31 | 159 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 10 | 57 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Kimani Vidal | 11 | 31 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Omarion Hampton | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladd McConkey | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Oronde Gadsden II | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Keenan Allen | 3 | 8 | 25 | 0 |
| Quentin Johnston | 3 | 6 | 20 | 0 |
| Kimani Vidal | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Tre Harris | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Tucker Fisk | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 17/29 | 268 | 1 | 1 |
| Efton Chism III | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 10 | 66 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 10 | 53 | 5.3 | 0 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 9 | 27 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 3 | 4 | 75 | 0 |
| Kayshon Boutte | 4 | 4 | 66 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 3 | 5 | 64 | 1 |
| Efton Chism III | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 2 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Jack Westover | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Kyle Williams | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| DeMario Douglas | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Drake Maye | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.0%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.15
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.86