2025 · WC

Final

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

3·16

Patriots

New England

QB Drake Maye

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 35°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

NE -3.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

+4.9est.

NE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chargersedge mapPatriots
  • -0.016EPA / play+0.154
  • 43.6%Success rate48.2%
  • +0.021EPA / dropback+0.308
  • -0.080EPA / rush-0.089
  • 7.4%Explosive rate10.5%
  • +0.01CPOE+10.94
  • 46.7%Third-down rate43.3%
  • 48.9%Red-zone TD rate63.4%
  • 2.10Points / drive2.47
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 12–5 since 1999

Meetings average 42.6 points. NE are 11-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W17LAC @ NE40–7CHARGERS
2023 · W13LAC @ NE6–0CHARGERS
2021 · W8NE @ LAC27–24NE
2020 · W13NE @ LAC45–0NE
2018 · playoffsLAC @ NE28–41NE
2017 · W8LAC @ NE13–21NE
2014 · W14NE @ SD23–14NE
2011 · W2SD @ NE21–35NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLAC–NE
NEQ1 15:00514Punt0–0
LACQ1 12:23638Punt0–0
NEQ1 8:082-1Turnover0–0
LACQ1 7:3048Turnover on downs0–0
NEQ1 5:121393Field goal0–3
LACQ2 13:321056Field goal3–3
NEQ2 6:52728Punt3–3
LACQ2 3:23815Punt3–3
NEQ2 0:31437Field goal3–6
LACQ2 0:0200End of half3–6
LACQ3 15:0033Punt3–6
NEQ3 13:121158Turnover3–6
LACQ3 7:0656Punt3–6
NEQ3 5:10764Field goal3–9
LACQ3 1:34614Punt3–9
NEQ4 14:01780Touchdown3–16
LACQ4 9:45417Turnover3–16
NEQ4 8:083-5Punt3–16
LACQ4 5:391450Turnover on downs3–16
NEQ4 1:55216End of half3–16

Box score

Individual performances

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert19/3115900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Justin Herbert10575.70
Kimani Vidal11312.80
Omarion Hampton1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ladd McConkey34320
Oronde Gadsden II33300
Keenan Allen38250
Quentin Johnston36200
Kimani Vidal23200
Tre Harris23200
Tucker Fisk33120

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drake Maye17/2926811
Efton Chism III0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Drake Maye10666.60
Rhamondre Stevenson10535.30
TreVeyon Henderson9273.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rhamondre Stevenson34750
Kayshon Boutte44660
Hunter Henry35641
Efton Chism III11200
Stefon Diggs25160
TreVeyon Henderson1190
Jack Westover1180
Kyle Williams1170
DeMario Douglas1230
Austin Hooper0200
Drake Maye0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.5%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.0%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.15
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.86