Closing spread
NE -6.5
Total
53.5
Model margin
+4.7est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Chargers
- OutJonas MoutonLBShoulder· DNP
- OutLuis CastilloDETibia· DNP
- ProbablePatrick CraytonWRAnkle· Full
- ProbableVincent BrownWRHamstring· Full
Patriots
- OutDan KoppenCFibula· DNP
- OutMike WrightDEConcussion· DNP
- QuestionableGary GuytonLBHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableRyan WendellCCalf· Limited
- QuestionableSebastian VollmerTBack· Limited
- QuestionableTaylor PriceWRHamstring· Limited
- LimitedDan GronkowskiTEHamstring
- ProbableDane FletcherLBThumb· Limited
- ProbableJerod MayoLBThigh· Limited
- ProbableJosh BarrettSThumb· Limited
- ProbableLeigh BoddenCBBack· Limited
- ProbableRob GronkowskiTEHamstring
Win probability
- Patriots
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
NE lead 12–5 since 1999
Meetings average 42.6 points. NE are 11-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–NE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 42 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 12:03 | 12 | 92 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 6:16 | 7 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| NE | Q1 2:55 | 14 | 65 | Field goal | 7–10 |
| LAC | Q2 13:20 | 9 | 60 | Turnover on downs | 7–10 |
| NE | Q2 8:14 | 10 | 99 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| LAC | Q2 2:49 | 11 | 61 | Turnover | 7–17 |
| NE | Q2 0:09 | 2 | 18 | Field goal | 7–20 |
| NE | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 53 | Punt | 7–20 |
| LAC | Q3 11:13 | 12 | 72 | Turnover | 7–20 |
| NE | Q3 4:35 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 7–20 |
| LAC | Q3 3:36 | 11 | 44 | Touchdown | 14–20 |
| NE | Q4 13:33 | 7 | 41 | Turnover on downs | 14–20 |
| LAC | Q4 11:41 | 3 | 12 | Turnover | 14–20 |
| NE | Q4 10:20 | 4 | 61 | Touchdown | 14–28 |
| LAC | Q4 8:40 | 8 | 80 | Touchdown | 21–28 |
| NE | Q4 5:40 | 9 | 75 | Touchdown | 21–35 |
| LAC | Q4 1:54 | 3 | 19 | Turnover | 21–35 |
| NE | Q4 1:02 | 1 | 2 | End of half | 21–35 |
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 31/40 | 423 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 17 | 70 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Danny Woodhead | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Stevan Ridley | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deion Branch | 8 | 10 | 129 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 4 | 6 | 86 | 2 |
| Wes Welker | 7 | 11 | 81 | 0 |
| Aaron Hernandez | 7 | 8 | 62 | 1 |
| Chad Johnson | 2 | 2 | 45 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
4.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.6%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.31
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+4.72
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.