Closing spread
NE -6.5
Total
53.5
Model margin
+4.7est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
NE lead 12–5 since 1999
Meetings average 42.6 points. NE are 11-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 31/40 | 423 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 17 | 70 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Danny Woodhead | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Stevan Ridley | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deion Branch | 8 | 10 | 129 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 4 | 6 | 86 | 2 |
| Wes Welker | 7 | 11 | 81 | 0 |
| Aaron Hernandez | 7 | 8 | 62 | 1 |
| Chad Johnson | 2 | 2 | 45 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
4.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.6%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.31
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+4.72
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.