2021 · Week 8

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Mac Jones

27·24

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

LAC -3.5

Total

50.5

Model margin

+2.1est.

LAC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Chargers

Win probability

  • Chargers
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Chargers winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapChargers
  • +0.070EPA / play+0.088
  • 48.6%Success rate47.4%
  • +0.133EPA / dropback+0.167
  • -0.012EPA / rush-0.075
  • 11.1%Explosive rate7.5%
  • +2.93CPOE-0.71
  • 45.5%Third-down rate45.7%
  • 62.3%Red-zone TD rate68.6%
  • 2.41Points / drive2.55
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 12–5 since 1999

Meetings average 42.6 points. LAC are 6-11 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsLAC @ NE3–16NE
2024 · W17LAC @ NE40–7CHARGERS
2023 · W13LAC @ NE6–0CHARGERS
2020 · W13NE @ LAC45–0NE
2018 · playoffsLAC @ NE28–41NE
2017 · W8LAC @ NE13–21NE
2014 · W14NE @ SD23–14NE
2011 · W2SD @ NE21–35NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–LAC
LACQ1 15:00875Touchdown0–7
NEQ1 10:541070Touchdown7–7
LACQ1 6:26623Punt7–7
NEQ1 2:43511Punt7–7
LACQ2 14:51586Touchdown7–14
NEQ2 12:35964Turnover on downs7–14
LACQ2 8:3636Punt7–14
NEQ2 6:51830Field goal10–14
LACQ2 3:2934Punt10–14
NEQ2 2:1332Punt10–14
LACQ2 1:44412Turnover10–14
NEQ2 0:57410Field goal13–14
LACQ2 0:1000End of half13–14
NEQ3 15:001058Turnover13–14
LACQ3 10:31413Punt13–14
NEQ3 8:481041Field goal16–14
LACQ3 3:39545Field goal16–17
NEQ3 0:3938Punt16–17
LACQ4 13:26720Opp touchdown24–17
LACQ4 10:11414Punt24–17
NEQ4 9:151359Field goal27–17
LACQ4 2:191072Touchdown27–24
NEQ4 0:4000End of half27–24

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mac Jones18/3521700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Damien Harris23803.51
Brandon Bolden4266.50
Rhamondre Stevenson8263.30
Mac Jones4102.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nelson Agholor36600
Kendrick Bourne47380
Jakobi Meyers49360
Hunter Henry13330
N'Keal Harry22300
Jonnu Smith22130
Rhamondre Stevenson1250
Jakob Johnson1220
Damien Harris0100

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert18/3522322

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Justin Jackson37926.30
Austin Ekeler11645.81
Larry Rountree III4112.80
Justin Herbert294.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keenan Allen611771
Austin Ekeler610600
Jared Cook25250
Josh Palmer11241
Mike Williams25190
Jalen Guyton12180

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

2.53%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.6%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.20
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+2.06