Closing spread
LAC -3.5
Total
50.5
Model margin
+2.1est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.070EPA / play+0.088
- 48.6%Success rate47.4%
- +0.133EPA / dropback+0.167
- -0.012EPA / rush-0.075
- 11.1%Explosive rate7.5%
- +2.93CPOE-0.71
- 45.5%Third-down rate45.7%
- 62.3%Red-zone TD rate68.6%
- 2.41Points / drive2.55
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 12–5 since 1999
Meetings average 42.6 points. LAC are 6-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 18/35 | 217 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damien Harris | 23 | 80 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Brandon Bolden | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 8 | 26 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Mac Jones | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nelson Agholor | 3 | 6 | 60 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 4 | 7 | 38 | 0 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 4 | 9 | 36 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 1 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| N'Keal Harry | 2 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Jakob Johnson | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Damien Harris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 18/35 | 223 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jackson | 3 | 79 | 26.3 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 11 | 64 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Larry Rountree III | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Justin Herbert | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | 6 | 11 | 77 | 1 |
| Austin Ekeler | 6 | 10 | 60 | 0 |
| Jared Cook | 2 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Josh Palmer | 1 | 1 | 24 | 1 |
| Mike Williams | 2 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Jalen Guyton | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.6%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.20
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+2.06