Closing spread
NE -4
Total
53
Model margin
+1.4est.
SD perspective
Push chance
2.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
NE lead 12–5 since 1999
Meetings average 42.6 points. SD are 6-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 28/44 | 317 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeGarrette Blount | 20 | 66 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Jonas Gray | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Edelman | 8 | 12 | 141 | 1 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 8 | 11 | 87 | 1 |
| Brandon LaFell | 4 | 9 | 41 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 3 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Timothy Wright | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
2.37%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.8%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.09
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.39
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.