2014 · Week 14

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

23·14

Chargers

San Diego

QB Philip Rivers

Qualcomm Stadium · outdoors · grass · 67°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

NE -4

Total

53

Model margin

+1.4est.

SD perspective

Push chance

2.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Chargers

Win probability

  • Chargers
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Chargers winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

The rivalry

NE lead 12–5 since 1999

Meetings average 42.6 points. SD are 6-11 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsLAC @ NE3–16NE
2024 · W17LAC @ NE40–7CHARGERS
2023 · W13LAC @ NE6–0CHARGERS
2021 · W8NE @ LAC27–24NE
2020 · W13NE @ LAC45–0NE
2018 · playoffsLAC @ NE28–41NE
2017 · W8LAC @ NE13–21NE
2011 · W2SD @ NE21–35NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–SD
LACQ1 15:00727Punt0–0
NEQ1 11:111680Field goal3–0
LACQ1 3:151165Touchdown3–7
NEQ2 13:29428Opp touchdown3–14
NEQ2 11:061265Field goal6–14
LACQ2 7:3838Punt6–14
NEQ2 5:31425Touchdown13–14
LACQ2 3:28717Punt13–14
NEQ2 1:32726Turnover13–14
LACQ2 0:101-1End of half13–14
NEQ3 15:0038Punt13–14
LACQ3 12:4336Punt13–14
NEQ3 11:3334Punt13–14
LACQ3 10:2631Punt13–14
NEQ3 8:2131Punt13–14
LACQ3 6:44620Turnover13–14
NEQ3 4:4334Punt13–14
LACQ3 3:09530Punt13–14
NEQ3 0:381050Field goal16–14
LACQ4 10:3434Punt22–14
NEQ4 8:53169Touchdown23–14
LACQ4 8:41430Punt23–14
NEQ4 6:18939Punt23–14
LACQ4 2:0549Turnover on downs23–14
NEQ4 1:172-2End of half23–14

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady28/4431721

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeGarrette Blount20663.30
Jonas Gray294.50
Tom Brady471.80
Julian Edelman144.00
Shane Vereen111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julian Edelman8121411
Rob Gronkowski811871
Brandon LaFell49410
Shane Vereen34300
LeGarrette Blount22110
Danny Amendola3370
Timothy Wright0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -44.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

2.37%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.8%

Expected total

44.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.09
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.39

One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.