Closing spread
BAL -3
Total
45.5
Model margin
-0.7est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Browns
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.109EPA / play+0.091
- 45.2%Success rate46.9%
- +0.125EPA / dropback+0.193
- +0.093EPA / rush-0.034
- 10.3%Explosive rate11.2%
- -0.32CPOE+2.55
- 49.8%Third-down rate45.5%
- 71.9%Red-zone TD rate71.8%
- 2.64Points / drive2.32
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 39–15 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. CLE are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 11/17 | 163 | 1 | 0 |
| Trace McSorley | 1/4 | 13 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 9 | 124 | 13.8 | 2 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 13 | 53 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Gus Edwards | 7 | 49 | 7.0 | 2 |
| Justice Hill | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Trace McSorley | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Andrews | 5 | 6 | 78 | 0 |
| Marquise Brown | 2 | 6 | 50 | 1 |
| Willie Snead | 3 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Miles Boykin | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Gus Edwards | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 28/47 | 343 | 2 | 1 |
| Jarvis Landry | 1/1 | 12 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 17 | 82 | 4.8 | 2 |
| Kareem Hunt | 6 | 33 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Baker Mayfield | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 6 | 7 | 77 | 1 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 3 | 5 | 74 | 0 |
| Rashard Higgins | 6 | 10 | 68 | 1 |
| Jarvis Landry | 6 | 9 | 52 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 3 | 4 | 45 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Harrison Bryant | 3 | 6 | 18 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
7.42%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.1%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.61
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.16
- Expected margin-0.74