2020 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

47·42

Browns

Cleveland

QB Baker Mayfield

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 34°F · wind 18mph

Closing spread

BAL -3

Total

45.5

Model margin

-0.7est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapBrowns
  • +0.109EPA / play+0.091
  • 45.2%Success rate46.9%
  • +0.125EPA / dropback+0.193
  • +0.093EPA / rush-0.034
  • 10.3%Explosive rate11.2%
  • -0.32CPOE+2.55
  • 49.8%Third-down rate45.5%
  • 71.9%Red-zone TD rate71.8%
  • 2.64Points / drive2.32
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 39–16 since 1999

Meetings average 40.2 points. CLE are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6BAL @ CLE10–13CLE
2025 · W11BAL @ CLE23–16BAL
2025 · W2CLE @ BAL17–41BAL
2024 · W18CLE @ BAL10–35BAL
2024 · W8BAL @ CLE24–29CLE
2023 · W10CLE @ BAL33–31CLE
2023 · W4BAL @ CLE28–3BAL
2022 · W15BAL @ CLE3–13CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–CLE
CLEQ1 15:001181Touchdown0–7
BALQ1 9:061044Touchdown7–7
CLEQ1 3:041015Missed field goal7–7
BALQ2 14:563-10Punt7–7
CLEQ2 13:5644Punt7–7
BALQ2 12:30880Touchdown14–7
CLEQ2 7:49775Touchdown14–14
BALQ2 4:163-5Punt14–14
CLEQ2 1:5147Punt14–14
BALQ2 1:01456Touchdown21–14
CLEQ2 0:30419End of half21–14
BALQ3 15:00570Touchdown28–14
CLEQ3 12:471175Touchdown28–20
BALQ3 9:06832Punt28–20
CLEQ3 4:3210Turnover34–20
BALQ3 4:2411Touchdown34–20
CLEQ3 4:211370Touchdown34–28
BALQ4 13:3634Punt34–28
CLEQ4 12:461270Touchdown34–35
BALQ4 6:33975Touchdown42–35
CLEQ4 1:51475Touchdown42–42
BALQ4 1:04438Field goal45–42
CLEQ4 0:0212Safety47–42

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson11/1716310
Trace McSorley1/41300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Jackson912413.82
J.K. Dobbins13534.11
Gus Edwards7497.02
Justice Hill144.00
Trace McSorley210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mark Andrews56780
Marquise Brown26501
Willie Snead35290
Miles Boykin11150
Gus Edwards1140

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield28/4734321
Jarvis Landry1/11200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nick Chubb17824.82
Kareem Hunt6335.51
Baker Mayfield5234.61

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kareem Hunt67771
Donovan Peoples-Jones35740
Rashard Higgins610681
Jarvis Landry69520
David Njoku34450
Nick Chubb22210
Harrison Bryant36180

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

7.42%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.1%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.61
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.16
  • Expected margin-0.74