2020 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

31·24

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

GB -9.5

Total

55.5

Model margin

-5.5est.

DET perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapLions
  • +0.221EPA / play+0.014
  • 50.7%Success rate45.5%
  • +0.353EPA / dropback+0.103
  • +0.025EPA / rush-0.156
  • 10.1%Explosive rate8.4%
  • +6.90CPOE-1.27
  • 50.7%Third-down rate41.6%
  • 86.4%Red-zone TD rate63.0%
  • 2.98Points / drive2.14
  • 0.9%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 36–19 since 1999

Meetings average 45.8 points. DET are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7GB @ DET17–20DET
2025 · W13GB @ DET31–24GB
2025 · W1DET @ GB13–27GB
2024 · W14GB @ DET31–34DET
2024 · W9DET @ GB24–14DET
2023 · W12GB @ DET29–22GB
2023 · W4DET @ GB34–20DET
2022 · W18DET @ GB20–16DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–DET
DETQ1 15:001175Touchdown0–7
GBQ1 9:24375Touchdown7–7
DETQ1 8:0037Punt7–7
GBQ1 6:121269Touchdown14–7
DETQ2 14:11616Punt14–7
GBQ2 10:27728Punt14–7
DETQ2 5:411485Touchdown14–14
GBQ2 1:27519Punt14–14
DETQ2 0:35625End of half14–14
GBQ3 15:001790Touchdown21–14
DETQ3 6:1134Punt21–14
GBQ3 4:501279Touchdown28–14
DETQ4 12:011652Touchdown28–21
GBQ4 6:30641Field goal31–21
DETQ4 3:30729Field goal31–24
GBQ4 1:49311End of half31–24

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers26/3329030

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones15694.60
Jamaal Williams10383.80
Aaron Rodgers6132.21

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams7101151
Marquez Valdes-Scantling66851
Robert Tonyan55361
Allen Lazard23190
Equanimeous St. Brown11150
Tavon Austin2280
Marcedes Lewis1160
Aaron Jones2360

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford24/3424410
Chase Daniel3/62900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Andre Swift7243.41
Jamal Agnew11111.00
Adrian Peterson471.80
Matthew Stafford166.00
Kerryon Johnson231.51

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Danny Amendola67660
Marvin Jones48480
T.J. Hockenson611431
Mohamed Sanu22370
D'Andre Swift45260
Adrian Peterson11230
Quintez Cephus22160
Kerryon Johnson11100
Jamal Agnew1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -9.53.1%3.3%5.0%3.2%7.4%6.3%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

1.30%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

34.6%

Expected total

48.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-7.22
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-5.52