Closing spread
GB -9.5
Total
55.5
Model margin
-5.5est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.221EPA / play+0.014
- 50.7%Success rate45.5%
- +0.353EPA / dropback+0.103
- +0.025EPA / rush-0.156
- 10.1%Explosive rate8.4%
- +6.90CPOE-1.27
- 50.7%Third-down rate41.6%
- 86.4%Red-zone TD rate63.0%
- 2.98Points / drive2.14
- 0.9%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 36–18 since 1999
GB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.9 points. DET are 26-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 26/33 | 290 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 15 | 69 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 10 | 38 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 6 | 13 | 2.2 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 7 | 10 | 115 | 1 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 6 | 6 | 85 | 1 |
| Robert Tonyan | 5 | 5 | 36 | 1 |
| Allen Lazard | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 24/34 | 244 | 1 | 0 |
| Chase Daniel | 3/6 | 29 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 7 | 24 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Jamal Agnew | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Kerryon Johnson | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Amendola | 6 | 7 | 66 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 4 | 8 | 48 | 0 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 6 | 11 | 43 | 1 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 2 | 2 | 37 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 4 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Quintez Cephus | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Kerryon Johnson | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Jamal Agnew | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
1.30%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
34.6%
Expected total
48.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-7.22
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-5.52