Closing spread
LA -5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+4.2est.
LA perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Rams
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.004EPA / play-0.013
- 46.5%Success rate44.6%
- -0.040EPA / dropback+0.032
- +0.052EPA / rush-0.081
- 9.4%Explosive rate9.2%
- -2.06CPOE+0.37
- 41.3%Third-down rate44.2%
- 54.0%Red-zone TD rate59.0%
- 1.88Points / drive1.76
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 6–3 since 1999
RAMS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40 points. LA are 3-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 9/16 | 119 | 0 | 1 |
| Jarrett Stidham | 5/7 | 27 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damien Harris | 11 | 50 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Sony Michel | 7 | 22 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 7 | 16 | 2.3 | 0 |
| James White | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Jarrett Stidham | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| N'Keal Harry | 3 | 4 | 49 | 0 |
| Damiere Byrd | 5 | 8 | 48 | 0 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 4 | 5 | 47 | 0 |
| James White | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Sony Michel | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Damien Harris | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin Asiasi | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 16/25 | 137 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Akers | 29 | 171 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Darrell Henderson | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Higbee | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 5 | 5 | 33 | 1 |
| Robert Woods | 5 | 8 | 32 | 0 |
| Cam Akers | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.2%
Expected total
40.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.47
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.17