Closing spread
NE -2
Total
55.5
Model margin
+0.8est.
LA perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Rams
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.090EPA / play+0.149
- 47.3%Success rate50.8%
- +0.181EPA / dropback+0.203
- -0.031EPA / rush+0.065
- 10.7%Explosive rate12.1%
- +1.03CPOE+1.24
- 41.8%Third-down rate45.0%
- 66.1%Red-zone TD rate57.8%
- 2.32Points / drive2.63
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 6–3 since 1999
RAMS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40 points. LA are 3-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NE–LA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 27 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 12:06 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 11:15 | 11 | 45 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 5:35 | 5 | 22 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 3:25 | 7 | 41 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 0:12 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NE | Q2 13:58 | 6 | 39 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| LA | Q2 10:29 | 5 | 23 | Punt | 3–0 |
| NE | Q2 7:50 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 3–0 |
| LA | Q2 6:14 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 3–0 |
| NE | Q2 3:57 | 9 | 36 | Turnover on downs | 3–0 |
| LA | Q2 1:13 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 3–0 |
| NE | Q2 0:16 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 3–0 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 3–0 |
| NE | Q3 12:58 | 6 | 41 | Punt | 3–0 |
| LA | Q3 10:06 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 3–0 |
| NE | Q3 8:36 | 4 | 10 | Punt | 3–0 |
| LA | Q3 6:33 | 9 | 42 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| NE | Q3 2:11 | 6 | 26 | Punt | 3–3 |
| LA | Q4 14:47 | 11 | 33 | Punt | 3–3 |
| NE | Q4 9:49 | 5 | 69 | Touchdown | 10–3 |
| LA | Q4 7:00 | 7 | 48 | Turnover | 10–3 |
| NE | Q4 4:17 | 8 | 67 | Field goal | 13–3 |
| LA | Q4 1:12 | 5 | 55 | Missed field goal | 13–3 |
| NE | Q4 0:05 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 13–3 |
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 21/35 | 262 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sony Michel | 18 | 94 | 5.2 | 1 |
| Rex Burkhead | 7 | 43 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| James White | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Edelman | 10 | 12 | 141 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 6 | 7 | 87 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| James White | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Chris Hogan | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| Sony Michel | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 19/38 | 229 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | 10 | 35 | 3.5 | 0 |
| C.J. Anderson | 7 | 22 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Cooks | 8 | 13 | 120 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 5 | 10 | 70 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 3 | 7 | 28 | 0 |
| C.J. Anderson | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Todd Gurley | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
2.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.2%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.96
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.78