Closing spread
STL -14
Total
52.5
Model margin
+4.5est.
NE perspective
Push chance
1.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
NE lead 6–3 since 1999
RAMS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40 points. NE are 6-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 16/27 | 145 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antowain Smith | 18 | 92 | 5.1 | 0 |
| David Patten | 1 | 22 | 22.0 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| J.R. Redmond | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Brown | 6 | 6 | 89 | 0 |
| J.R. Redmond | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Jermaine Wiggins | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| David Patten | 1 | 4 | 8 | 1 |
| Antowain Smith | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Patrick Pass | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
1.57%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.1%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.95
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.51
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.