Closing spread
NE -7.5
Total
46
Model margin
-0.5est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
NE lead 6–3 since 1999
RAMS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40 points. STL are 3-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 23/35 | 304 | 4 | 0 |
| Ryan Mallett | 1/3 | 17 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stevan Ridley | 15 | 127 | 8.5 | 1 |
| Shane Vereen | 7 | 22 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Ryan Mallett | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Gronkowski | 8 | 13 | 146 | 2 |
| Danny Woodhead | 5 | 7 | 56 | 0 |
| Wes Welker | 6 | 9 | 48 | 0 |
| Brandon Lloyd | 2 | 4 | 28 | 2 |
| Michael Hoomanawanui | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Deion Branch | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
4.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.9%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.94
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.45
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.