Closing spread
NE -7.5
Total
46
Model margin
-0.5est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Patriots
- OutAaron HernandezTEAnkle· DNP
- OutBrandon BoldenRBKnee· DNP
- OutPatrick ChungSShoulder· DNP
- OutRas-I DowlingCBThigh· DNP
- OutSteve GregorySHip· DNP
- OutTracy WhiteLBFoot· DNP
- OutTrevor ScottDEHamstring· DNP
- QuestionableBrandon LloydWRKnee· Limited
- QuestionableDont'a HightowerLBHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableJerod MayoLBElbow· Limited
- QuestionableJulian EdelmanWRHand· Limited
- QuestionableLogan MankinsGCalf· Limited
- QuestionableNick McDonaldCShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableRob GronkowskiTEHip· Limited
- QuestionableRon BraceDTBack· Limited
- QuestionableSebastian VollmerTBack· Limited
- QuestionableSterling MooreCBKnee· Limited
- QuestionableWes WelkerWRAnkle· Limited
- ProbableKyle LoveDTKnee· Full
Rams
- OutEugene SimsDEKnee· DNP
- OutRodger SaffoldTKnee· DNP
- QuestionableDanny AmendolaWRShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableMario HagganLBThigh· Limited
- QuestionableMatt ConrathDTKnee· Full
- QuestionableMike McNeillTEKnee· Full
- QuestionableWayne HunterTBack· DNP
- ProbableBrandon GibsonWRIllness· Full
Win probability
- Rams
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
NE lead 6–3 since 1999
RAMS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40 points. STL are 3-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NE–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 75 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| NE | Q1 12:25 | 9 | 68 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| LA | Q1 7:50 | 7 | 40 | Punt | 7–7 |
| NE | Q1 3:43 | 9 | 83 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| LA | Q2 14:12 | 6 | 14 | Punt | 14–7 |
| NE | Q2 9:55 | 9 | 78 | Touchdown | 21–7 |
| LA | Q2 6:26 | 10 | 37 | Turnover on downs | 21–7 |
| NE | Q2 1:52 | 11 | 34 | Touchdown | 28–7 |
| LA | Q2 0:10 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 28–7 |
| NE | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 80 | Touchdown | 35–7 |
| LA | Q3 12:24 | 3 | 13 | Punt | 35–7 |
| NE | Q3 9:57 | 7 | 58 | Field goal | 38–7 |
| LA | Q3 6:55 | 8 | -1 | Punt | 38–7 |
| NE | Q3 3:23 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 38–7 |
| LA | Q3 2:28 | 7 | 30 | Turnover on downs | 38–7 |
| NE | Q4 14:51 | 7 | 57 | Touchdown | 45–7 |
| LA | Q4 11:20 | 6 | 43 | Turnover | 45–7 |
| NE | Q4 8:21 | 7 | 25 | Punt | 45–7 |
| LA | Q4 5:13 | 7 | 76 | Turnover | 45–7 |
| NE | Q4 1:25 | 3 | -3 | End of half | 45–7 |
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 23/35 | 304 | 4 | 0 |
| Ryan Mallett | 1/3 | 17 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stevan Ridley | 15 | 127 | 8.5 | 1 |
| Shane Vereen | 7 | 22 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Ryan Mallett | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Gronkowski | 8 | 13 | 146 | 2 |
| Danny Woodhead | 5 | 7 | 56 | 0 |
| Wes Welker | 6 | 9 | 48 | 0 |
| Brandon Lloyd | 2 | 4 | 28 | 2 |
| Michael Hoomanawanui | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Deion Branch | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
4.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.9%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.94
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.45
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.