Closing spread
STL -8.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+4.5est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
NE lead 6–3 since 1999
RAMS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40 points. NE are 6-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–NE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 40 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 12:25 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 11:01 | 3 | 18 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| NE | Q1 9:38 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LA | Q1 5:30 | 6 | 48 | Opp touchdown | 7–7 |
| NE | Q1 1:55 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 7–7 |
| LA | Q1 1:55 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| NE | Q1 1:17 | 4 | 30 | Field goal | 7–10 |
| LA | Q2 14:06 | 9 | 57 | Missed field goal | 7–10 |
| NE | Q2 8:45 | 12 | 65 | Turnover | 7–10 |
| LA | Q2 2:12 | 9 | 97 | Touchdown | 14–10 |
| NE | Q2 0:31 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 14–10 |
| NE | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 14–10 |
| LA | Q3 13:30 | 5 | 35 | Punt | 14–10 |
| NE | Q3 11:20 | 11 | 42 | Punt | 14–10 |
| LA | Q3 6:02 | 2 | 25 | Turnover | 14–10 |
| NE | Q3 5:18 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 14–10 |
| LA | Q3 5:06 | 5 | 25 | Field goal | 17–10 |
| NE | Q3 3:06 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 17–10 |
| LA | Q3 1:33 | 11 | 75 | Touchdown | 24–10 |
| NE | Q4 10:32 | 5 | 65 | Touchdown | 24–17 |
| LA | Q4 7:46 | 14 | 62 | End of half | 24–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 19/27 | 185 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antowain Smith | 15 | 36 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Brown | 8 | 10 | 91 | 0 |
| David Patten | 2 | 5 | 37 | 1 |
| Kevin Faulk | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Rod Rutledge | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Charles Johnson | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Antowain Smith | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
1.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.1%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.95
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.51
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.