Closing spread
STL -2.5
Total
49.5
Model margin
+0.3est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
NE lead 6–3 since 1999
RAMS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40 points. STL are 3-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NE–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 57 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| LA | Q1 11:25 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–0 |
| NE | Q1 9:19 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–0 |
| NE | Q1 7:31 | 4 | 15 | Field goal | 6–0 |
| LA | Q1 5:42 | 9 | 36 | Punt | 6–6 |
| NE | Q2 14:53 | 1 | -6 | Opp touchdown | 6–7 |
| NE | Q2 14:46 | 10 | 64 | Touchdown | 13–7 |
| LA | Q2 9:04 | 6 | 85 | Touchdown | 13–14 |
| NE | Q2 5:19 | 4 | 51 | Field goal | 16–14 |
| LA | Q2 3:03 | 6 | 41 | Turnover | 16–14 |
| NE | Q2 1:02 | 10 | 34 | Field goal | 19–14 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 11 | Punt | 19–14 |
| NE | Q3 11:49 | 9 | 54 | Touchdown | 26–14 |
| LA | Q3 7:15 | 4 | 12 | Turnover | 26–14 |
| NE | Q3 5:43 | 4 | 21 | Touchdown | 33–14 |
| LA | Q3 3:36 | 12 | 73 | Touchdown | 33–22 |
| NE | Q4 14:13 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 33–22 |
| LA | Q4 13:01 | 6 | -7 | Punt | 33–22 |
| NE | Q4 10:52 | 9 | 64 | Touchdown | 40–22 |
| LA | Q4 5:23 | 12 | 80 | Turnover on downs | 40–22 |
| NE | Q4 2:04 | 3 | 12 | End of half | 40–22 |
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 18/31 | 234 | 2 | 0 |
| Adam Vinatieri | 1/1 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 25 | 112 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Patrick Pass | 3 | 25 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
7.38%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.9%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.82
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+0.30
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.