2024 · Week 11

Final

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Matthew Stafford

28·22

Patriots

New England

QB Drake Maye

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 59°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

LA -4

Total

42.5

Model margin

-0.7est.

NE perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ramsedge mapPatriots
  • +0.038EPA / play-0.081
  • 47.5%Success rate42.5%
  • +0.112EPA / dropback-0.020
  • -0.069EPA / rush-0.187
  • 7.9%Explosive rate7.0%
  • -0.97CPOE+1.54
  • 37.0%Third-down rate35.0%
  • 49.9%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
  • 2.09Points / drive1.51
  • 1.3%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 6–3 since 1999

RAMS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40 points. NE are 6-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2020 · W14NE @ LA3–24RAMS
2018 · playoffsNE @ LA13–3NE
2016 · W13LA @ NE10–26NE
2012 · W8NE @ STL45–7NE
2008 · W8STL @ NE16–23NE
2004 · W9NE @ STL40–22NE
2001 · playoffsSTL @ NE17–20NE
2001 · W10STL @ NE24–17RAMS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLA–NE
NEQ1 15:00727Punt0–0
LAQ1 11:33545Punt0–0
NEQ1 8:39777Touchdown0–7
LAQ1 5:05424Punt0–7
NEQ1 2:511157Punt0–7
LAQ2 12:23980Touchdown7–7
NEQ2 7:183-8Turnover13–7
LAQ2 5:49112Touchdown14–7
NEQ2 5:45942Field goal14–10
LAQ2 1:521162Missed field goal14–10
LAQ3 15:00270Touchdown21–10
NEQ3 14:101262Field goal21–13
LAQ3 7:02772Touchdown28–13
NEQ3 3:301040Touchdown28–19
LAQ4 12:4535Punt28–19
NEQ4 11:031270Field goal28–22
LAQ4 4:54735Punt28–22
NEQ4 2:14515Turnover28–22
LAQ4 1:4700End of half28–22

Box score

Individual performances

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford18/2729540

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kyren Williams15865.70
Blake Corum5214.20
Matthew Stafford400.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Puka Nacua791231
Cooper Kupp6101062
Tutu Atwell12210
Demarcus Robinson24190
Colby Parkinson11191
Blake Corum1170

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drake Maye29/3928221

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rhamondre Stevenson20733.60
Drake Maye3279.00
Antonio Gibson4184.50
JaMycal Hasty221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kendrick Bourne55701
Hunter Henry69630
DeMario Douglas46590
Austin Hooper44350
Kayshon Boutte46330
Rhamondre Stevenson44160
Antonio Gibson1120
Jaheim Bell0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -42.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

2.48%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.3%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.45
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin-0.67