Closing spread
LA -4
Total
42.5
Model margin
-0.7est.
NE perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.038EPA / play-0.081
- 47.5%Success rate42.5%
- +0.112EPA / dropback-0.020
- -0.069EPA / rush-0.187
- 7.9%Explosive rate7.0%
- -0.97CPOE+1.54
- 37.0%Third-down rate35.0%
- 49.9%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
- 2.09Points / drive1.51
- 1.3%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 6–3 since 1999
RAMS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40 points. NE are 6-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 18/27 | 295 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyren Williams | 15 | 86 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Blake Corum | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puka Nacua | 7 | 9 | 123 | 1 |
| Cooper Kupp | 6 | 10 | 106 | 2 |
| Tutu Atwell | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Colby Parkinson | 1 | 1 | 19 | 1 |
| Blake Corum | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 29/39 | 282 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 20 | 73 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Drake Maye | 3 | 27 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| JaMycal Hasty | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendrick Bourne | 5 | 5 | 70 | 1 |
| Hunter Henry | 6 | 9 | 63 | 0 |
| DeMario Douglas | 4 | 6 | 59 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 4 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Kayshon Boutte | 4 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 4 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Jaheim Bell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.3%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.45
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-0.67