2016 · Week 13

Final

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Jared Goff

10·26

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 39°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

NE -13

Total

44.5

Model margin

+13.2est.

NE perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ramsedge mapPatriots
  • -0.203EPA / play+0.128
  • 36.6%Success rate44.3%
  • -0.222EPA / dropback+0.276
  • -0.170EPA / rush-0.077
  • 6.8%Explosive rate8.6%
  • -6.92CPOE+2.98
  • 32.2%Third-down rate47.3%
  • 47.6%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
  • 0.97Points / drive2.47
  • 2.8%Turnover rate0.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 6–3 since 1999

RAMS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40 points. NE are 6-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W11LA @ NE28–22RAMS
2020 · W14NE @ LA3–24RAMS
2018 · playoffsNE @ LA13–3NE
2012 · W8NE @ STL45–7NE
2008 · W8STL @ NE16–23NE
2004 · W9NE @ STL40–22NE
2001 · playoffsSTL @ NE17–20NE
2001 · W10STL @ NE24–17RAMS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLA–NE
NEQ1 15:00880Touchdown0–7
LAQ1 10:383-1Punt0–7
NEQ1 9:3848Punt0–7
LAQ1 7:2038Punt0–7
NEQ1 5:39624Punt0–7
LAQ1 2:21514Turnover0–7
NEQ1 0:0000Touchdown0–7
NEQ2 15:00430Touchdown0–14
LAQ2 13:0430Punt0–14
NEQ2 10:581045Punt0–14
LAQ2 6:2035Punt0–14
NEQ2 5:301243Field goal0–17
LAQ2 0:1100End of half0–17
LAQ3 15:00311Punt0–17
NEQ3 14:0345Punt0–17
LAQ3 12:45839Field goal3–17
NEQ3 7:50549Field goal3–20
LAQ3 5:0810Turnover3–20
NEQ3 5:02513Field goal3–23
LAQ3 3:06617Punt3–23
NEQ3 0:141068Field goal3–26
LAQ4 10:483-7Punt3–26
NEQ4 9:10417Punt3–26
LAQ4 7:04612Punt3–26
NEQ4 5:52522Punt3–26
LAQ4 3:29665Touchdown10–26
NEQ4 1:1500End of half10–26

Box score

Individual performances

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff14/3216112

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Todd Gurley11383.50
Benny Cunningham1-1-1.00
Jared Goff1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kenny Britt26671
Brian Quick58480
Tyler Higbee24160
Lance Kendricks25130
Todd Gurley2390
Pharoh Cooper1480
Bradley Marquez0100
Mike Thomas0100

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady33/4626910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeGarrette Blount18884.91
Dion Lewis5275.40
James White3175.70
Tom Brady310.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julian Edelman8121010
Malcolm Mitchell810820
Danny Amendola34300
Chris Hogan45231
James White45180
Dion Lewis45110
Martellus Bennett2440

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +135.9%2.1%2.8%4.6%3.4%3.7%3.2%3.1%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

2.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

80.9%

Expected total

42.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+7.39
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+4.02
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+13.15