Closing spread
NE -13
Total
44.5
Model margin
+13.2est.
NE perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Patriots
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.203EPA / play+0.128
- 36.6%Success rate44.3%
- -0.222EPA / dropback+0.276
- -0.170EPA / rush-0.077
- 6.8%Explosive rate8.6%
- -6.92CPOE+2.98
- 32.2%Third-down rate47.3%
- 47.6%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
- 0.97Points / drive2.47
- 2.8%Turnover rate0.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 6–3 since 1999
RAMS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40 points. NE are 6-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 14/32 | 161 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | 11 | 38 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Benny Cunningham | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Britt | 2 | 6 | 67 | 1 |
| Brian Quick | 5 | 8 | 48 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Lance Kendricks | 2 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| Todd Gurley | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Pharoh Cooper | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Bradley Marquez | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 33/46 | 269 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeGarrette Blount | 18 | 88 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Dion Lewis | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 0 |
| James White | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Edelman | 8 | 12 | 101 | 0 |
| Malcolm Mitchell | 8 | 10 | 82 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Chris Hogan | 4 | 5 | 23 | 1 |
| James White | 4 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 4 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
80.9%
Expected total
42.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+7.39
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+4.02
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+13.15