Closing spread
NE -9
Total
41
Model margin
+4.7est.
NE perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Patriots
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
NE lead 6–3 since 1999
RAMS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40 points. NE are 6-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–NE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 11 | 66 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| NE | Q1 8:49 | 13 | 73 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| LA | Q1 1:43 | 5 | 88 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| NE | Q2 14:14 | 4 | 18 | Punt | 10–7 |
| LA | Q2 11:28 | 10 | 50 | Punt | 10–7 |
| NE | Q2 7:04 | 11 | 68 | Field goal | 10–10 |
| LA | Q2 1:49 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 10–10 |
| NE | Q2 0:19 | 3 | 37 | Field goal | 10–13 |
| NE | Q3 15:00 | 0 | 0 | Punt | 10–13 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 10–13 |
| NE | Q3 13:30 | 5 | 24 | Turnover | 10–13 |
| LA | Q3 11:26 | 6 | 27 | Field goal | 13–13 |
| NE | Q3 8:03 | 4 | 31 | Turnover | 13–13 |
| LA | Q3 6:01 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 13–13 |
| NE | Q3 4:28 | 7 | 27 | Turnover on downs | 13–13 |
| LA | Q3 1:20 | 7 | 57 | Field goal | 16–13 |
| NE | Q4 12:25 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 16–13 |
| LA | Q4 11:30 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 16–13 |
| NE | Q4 10:35 | 5 | 28 | Field goal | 16–16 |
| LA | Q4 8:22 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 16–16 |
| NE | Q4 6:57 | 7 | 53 | Touchdown | 16–23 |
| LA | Q4 3:13 | 11 | 57 | Turnover | 16–23 |
| NE | Q4 1:08 | 0 | 0 | Punt | 16–23 |
| LA | Q4 0:05 | 1 | 7 | End of half | 16–23 |
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 21/33 | 267 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Faulk | 13 | 60 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 7 | 22 | 3.1 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 9 | 16 | 1.8 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
1.28%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.5%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.27
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+4.67
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.