Closing spread
NE -9
Total
41
Model margin
+4.7est.
NE perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Patriots
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
NE lead 6–3 since 1999
RAMS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40 points. NE are 6-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 21/33 | 267 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Faulk | 13 | 60 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 7 | 22 | 3.1 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 9 | 16 | 1.8 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
1.28%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.5%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.27
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+4.67
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.