Closing spread
TEN -7.5
Total
53
Model margin
-5.1est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.189EPA / play-0.050
- 50.8%Success rate42.0%
- +0.297EPA / dropback-0.034
- +0.070EPA / rush-0.086
- 10.3%Explosive rate8.3%
- +2.16CPOE-0.40
- 47.4%Third-down rate40.6%
- 76.8%Red-zone TD rate64.8%
- 2.85Points / drive1.74
- 1.1%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 32–23 since 1999
JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. JAX are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 19/24 | 212 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 26 | 215 | 8.3 | 2 |
| Logan Woodside | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 11 | 9 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 7 | 9 | 112 | 1 |
| Geoff Swaim | 3 | 3 | 34 | 1 |
| Corey Davis | 3 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Anthony Firkser | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner Minshew | 18/31 | 178 | 1 | 0 |
| Mike Glennon | 13/23 | 85 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Robinson | 12 | 67 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Gardner Minshew | 2 | 22 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keelan Cole | 7 | 12 | 67 | 1 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 6 | 11 | 49 | 0 |
| Collin Johnson | 2 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Devine Ozigbo | 4 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Tyler Eifert | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| DJ Chark | 2 | 9 | 16 | 0 |
| James Robinson | 4 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| James O'Shaughnessy | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Eric Saubert | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
4.94%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
35.6%
Expected total
48.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.39
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-2.43
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-5.12