2020 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Ryan Tannehill

31·10

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Mike Glennon

TIAA Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 69°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

TEN -7.5

Total

53

Model margin

-5.1est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapJaguars
  • +0.189EPA / play-0.050
  • 50.8%Success rate42.0%
  • +0.297EPA / dropback-0.034
  • +0.070EPA / rush-0.086
  • 10.3%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +2.16CPOE-0.40
  • 47.4%Third-down rate40.6%
  • 76.8%Red-zone TD rate64.8%
  • 2.85Points / drive1.74
  • 1.1%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 32–23 since 1999

JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. JAX are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18TEN @ JAX7–41JAX
2025 · W13JAX @ TEN25–3JAX
2024 · W17TEN @ JAX13–20JAX
2024 · W14JAX @ TEN10–6JAX
2023 · W18JAX @ TEN20–28TEN
2023 · W11TEN @ JAX14–34JAX
2022 · W18TEN @ JAX16–20JAX
2022 · W14JAX @ TEN36–22JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–JAX
JAXQ1 15:00940Missed field goal0–0
TENQ1 9:08352Touchdown7–0
JAXQ1 7:56423Punt7–0
TENQ1 6:22828Punt7–0
JAXQ1 3:0636Punt7–0
TENQ1 1:431369Turnover on downs7–0
JAXQ2 9:43827Punt7–0
TENQ2 5:41317Turnover7–0
JAXQ2 4:2235Field goal7–3
TENQ2 3:27575Touchdown14–3
JAXQ2 0:443-5Punt14–3
TENQ2 0:09228Field goal17–3
TENQ3 15:00575Touchdown24–3
JAXQ3 12:2423Turnover24–3
TENQ3 11:31643Touchdown31–3
JAXQ3 8:481265Touchdown31–10
TENQ3 2:59718Punt31–10
JAXQ4 14:521074Turnover on downs31–10
TENQ4 12:18925Punt31–10
JAXQ4 7:541180Turnover on downs31–10
TENQ4 5:03624Punt31–10
JAXQ4 1:49636End of half31–10

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill19/2421220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry262158.32
Logan Woodside11818.00
Jeremy McNichols1190.80
Jonnu Smith133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Brown791121
Geoff Swaim33341
Corey Davis33340
Jonnu Smith22200
Derrick Henry2270
Anthony Firkser1150
Kalif Raymond0100
Jeremy McNichols1100
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine0100

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Gardner Minshew18/3117810
Mike Glennon13/238501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Robinson12675.60
Gardner Minshew22211.00
Laviska Shenault Jr.122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keelan Cole712671
Laviska Shenault Jr.611490
Collin Johnson23330
Devine Ozigbo44300
Tyler Eifert22220
DJ Chark29160
James Robinson44160
James O'Shaughnessy22140
Dare Ogunbowale11120
Eric Saubert1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -7.53.0%3.3%4.9%3.2%7.4%6.4%3.5%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

4.94%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

35.6%

Expected total

48.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.39
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.43
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-5.12