Closing spread
MIN -2.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+2.7est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.016EPA / play+0.089
- 44.0%Success rate49.1%
- +0.014EPA / dropback+0.175
- -0.073EPA / rush-0.025
- 7.5%Explosive rate11.4%
- +1.28CPOE+4.45
- 34.8%Third-down rate41.2%
- 57.4%Red-zone TD rate74.1%
- 1.97Points / drive2.30
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 28–26 since 1999
Meetings average 41.8 points. MIN are 23-30-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 15/21 | 202 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 32 | 146 | 4.6 | 2 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 8 | 34 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Darnell Mooney | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Robinson | 4 | 5 | 83 | 0 |
| Darnell Mooney | 4 | 5 | 49 | 1 |
| Jimmy Graham | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Anthony Miller | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| J.P. Holtz | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Javon Wims | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 24/35 | 271 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 24 | 132 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Kirk Cousins | 3 | 25 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 8 | 11 | 104 | 0 |
| Tyler Conklin | 3 | 4 | 57 | 1 |
| Irv Smith | 3 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 5 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Chad Beebe | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 2 | 3 | 11 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.2%
Expected total
47.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.96
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.67