2020 · Week 15 · Division

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Mitch Trubisky

33·27

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

MIN -2.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

+2.7est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapVikings
  • -0.016EPA / play+0.089
  • 44.0%Success rate49.1%
  • +0.014EPA / dropback+0.175
  • -0.073EPA / rush-0.025
  • 7.5%Explosive rate11.4%
  • +1.28CPOE+4.45
  • 34.8%Third-down rate41.2%
  • 57.4%Red-zone TD rate74.1%
  • 1.97Points / drive2.30
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 29–26 since 1999

Meetings average 41.3 points. MIN are 24-30-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2MIN @ CHI9–3MIN
2025 · W11CHI @ MIN19–17CHI
2025 · W1MIN @ CHI27–24MIN
2024 · W15CHI @ MIN12–30MIN
2024 · W12MIN @ CHI30–27MIN
2023 · W12CHI @ MIN12–10CHI
2023 · W6MIN @ CHI19–13MIN
2022 · W18MIN @ CHI29–13MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–MIN
CHIQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
MINQ1 13:1134Punt0–0
CHIQ1 11:08558Touchdown7–0
MINQ1 9:01875Touchdown7–7
CHIQ1 4:46751Field goal10–7
MINQ1 1:16514Punt10–7
CHIQ2 14:051376Touchdown17–7
MINQ2 6:4649Turnover on downs17–7
CHIQ2 5:47517Field goal20–7
MINQ2 3:341264Field goal20–10
CHIQ2 0:2613End of half20–10
MINQ3 15:00861Touchdown20–17
CHIQ3 10:541175Touchdown27–17
MINQ3 5:30671Field goal27–20
CHIQ3 2:38742Field goal30–20
MINQ4 13:331263Touchdown30–27
CHIQ4 8:05965Turnover30–27
MINQ4 2:5749Turnover on downs30–27
CHIQ4 1:5435Field goal33–27
MINQ4 0:56537Turnover33–27

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mitchell Trubisky15/2120211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Montgomery321464.62
Mitchell Trubisky8344.30
Darnell Mooney11616.00
Cordarrelle Patterson133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Allen Robinson45830
Darnell Mooney45491
Jimmy Graham23250
David Montgomery12160
Anthony Miller11130
Cole Kmet22120
Cordarrelle Patterson1140
J.P. Holtz0100
Javon Wims0100

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins24/3527121

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dalvin Cook241325.51
Kirk Cousins3258.30
Alexander Mattison111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Justin Jefferson8111040
Tyler Conklin34571
Irv Smith34370
Dalvin Cook55270
Chad Beebe22210
Alexander Mattison11140
Adam Thielen23111

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.54.0%2.7%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.2%

Expected total

47.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.96
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.67