Closing spread
LV -3.5
Total
52
Model margin
-0.3est.
LV perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.043EPA / play+0.066
- 43.8%Success rate47.4%
- +0.154EPA / dropback+0.155
- -0.141EPA / rush-0.067
- 7.9%Explosive rate10.3%
- +0.07CPOE+2.18
- 45.1%Third-down rate45.5%
- 60.1%Red-zone TD rate59.9%
- 2.02Points / drive2.49
- 1.3%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 33–21 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.9 points. LV are 22-31-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 22/32 | 314 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | 13 | 60 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Justin Herbert | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Kalen Ballage | 8 | 11 | 1.4 | 1 |
| Joshua Kelley | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jalen Guyton | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Keenan Allen | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Guyton | 4 | 6 | 91 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 5 | 7 | 65 | 1 |
| Tyron Johnson | 3 | 5 | 61 | 1 |
| K.J. Hill | 3 | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 4 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Keenan Allen | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Donald Parham | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 17/28 | 226 | 1 | 1 |
| Derek Carr | 3/5 | 53 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 9 | 88 | 9.8 | 1 |
| Josh Jacobs | 26 | 76 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Devontae Booker | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Waller | 9 | 12 | 150 | 1 |
| Nelson Agholor | 4 | 8 | 49 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 3 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Foster Moreau | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Zay Jones | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Jalen Richard | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.44%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.4%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.96
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.26