2020 · Week 15 · Division

Final / OT

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

30·27

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Derek Carr

Allegiant Stadium · dome · grass

Closing spread

LV -3.5

Total

52

Model margin

-0.3est.

LV perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Raiders

Win probability

  • Raiders
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Raiders winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chargersedge mapRaiders
  • +0.043EPA / play+0.066
  • 43.8%Success rate47.4%
  • +0.154EPA / dropback+0.155
  • -0.141EPA / rush-0.067
  • 7.9%Explosive rate10.3%
  • +0.07CPOE+2.18
  • 45.1%Third-down rate45.5%
  • 60.1%Red-zone TD rate59.9%
  • 2.02Points / drive2.49
  • 1.3%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LAC lead 33–22 since 1999

Meetings average 43.8 points. LV are 23-31-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2LV @ LAC26–14RAIDERS
2025 · W13LV @ LAC14–31CHARGERS
2025 · W2LAC @ LV20–9CHARGERS
2024 · W18LAC @ LV34–20CHARGERS
2024 · W1LV @ LAC10–22CHARGERS
2023 · W15LAC @ LV21–63RAIDERS
2023 · W4LV @ LAC17–24CHARGERS
2022 · W13LAC @ LV20–27RAIDERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLAC–LV
LVQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
LACQ1 13:251278Touchdown7–0
LVQ1 5:56870Field goal7–3
LACQ1 0:55528Punt7–3
LVQ2 13:29786Touchdown7–10
LACQ2 9:191371Field goal10–10
LVQ2 1:5235Punt10–10
LACQ2 1:00449Touchdown17–10
LVQ2 0:1916End of half17–10
LACQ3 15:0045Punt17–10
LVQ3 12:411166Touchdown17–17
LACQ3 7:181370Touchdown24–17
LVQ3 2:082085Touchdown24–24
LACQ4 6:16547Missed field goal24–24
LVQ4 3:38542Turnover24–24
LACQ4 1:5430Missed field goal24–24
LVQ4 0:53512End of half24–24
LVOT1370Field goal24–27
LACOT754Touchdown30–27

Box score

Individual performances

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert22/3231420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Austin Ekeler13604.60
Justin Herbert4143.51
Kalen Ballage8111.41
Joshua Kelley284.00
Jalen Guyton144.00
Keenan Allen1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jalen Guyton46910
Hunter Henry57651
Tyron Johnson35611
K.J. Hill33390
Mike Williams22220
Austin Ekeler44190
Keenan Allen13170
Donald Parham0100

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Marcus Mariota17/2822611
Derek Carr3/55300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marcus Mariota9889.81
Josh Jacobs26762.91
Devontae Booker3124.00
Theo Riddick1-5-5.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darren Waller9121501
Nelson Agholor48490
Josh Jacobs33380
Foster Moreau11220
Zay Jones1290
Jalen Richard1170
Hunter Renfrow1240

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

2.44%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.4%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.96
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.26