2020 · Week 15 · Division

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Cam Newton

12·22

Dolphins

Miami

QB Tua Tagovailoa

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass · 79°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

NE -1.5

Total

40

Model margin

+3.2est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapDolphins
  • +0.004EPA / play+0.026
  • 46.5%Success rate46.8%
  • -0.040EPA / dropback+0.115
  • +0.052EPA / rush-0.124
  • 9.4%Explosive rate7.0%
  • -2.06CPOE+1.23
  • 41.3%Third-down rate38.5%
  • 54.0%Red-zone TD rate59.1%
  • 1.88Points / drive1.99
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 30–25 since 1999

NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. MIA are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8NE @ MIA24–19NE
2025 · W18MIA @ NE10–38NE
2025 · W2NE @ MIA33–27NE
2024 · W12NE @ MIA15–34MIA
2024 · W5MIA @ NE15–10MIA
2023 · W8NE @ MIA17–31MIA
2023 · W2MIA @ NE24–17MIA
2022 · W17MIA @ NE21–23NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–MIA
NEQ1 15:003-3Punt0–0
MIAQ1 13:2339Punt0–0
NEQ1 11:23634Punt0–0
MIAQ1 9:111595Turnover0–0
NEQ2 15:001359Field goal3–0
MIAQ2 8:503-1Punt3–0
NEQ2 6:51742Field goal6–0
MIAQ2 4:151042Missed field goal6–0
MIAQ3 15:00957Touchdown6–7
NEQ3 10:32222Turnover6–7
MIAQ3 9:50513Punt6–7
NEQ3 7:36860Field goal9–7
MIAQ3 4:201485Touchdown9–15
NEQ4 12:55946Field goal12–15
MIAQ4 9:031175Touchdown12–22
NEQ4 3:17743Turnover on downs12–22
MIAQ4 1:0828End of half12–22

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton17/2720900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Sony Michel10747.40
Cam Newton9384.20
James White231.50
J.J. Taylor122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jakobi Meyers7101110
James White44520
Damiere Byrd34240
N'Keal Harry12120
Sony Michel1180
Dalton Keene1220
Jakob Johnson0100
Devin Asiasi0100

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tua Tagovailoa20/2614501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Salvon Ahmed231225.31
Matt Breida12867.20
Patrick Laird22010.00
Tua Tagovailoa393.02
Lynn Bowden199.00
Malcolm Perry144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Durham Smythe55400
Lynn Bowden67370
Isaiah Ford33180
Mack Hollins23180
Adam Shaheen12150
Patrick Laird22120
Salvon Ahmed1350

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -1.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

2.07%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.7%

Expected total

42.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.75
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+3.22