Closing spread
NE -1.5
Total
40
Model margin
+3.2est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.004EPA / play+0.026
- 46.5%Success rate46.8%
- -0.040EPA / dropback+0.115
- +0.052EPA / rush-0.124
- 9.4%Explosive rate7.0%
- -2.06CPOE+1.23
- 41.3%Third-down rate38.5%
- 54.0%Red-zone TD rate59.1%
- 1.88Points / drive1.99
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 29–25 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. MIA are 28-25-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 17/27 | 209 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sony Michel | 10 | 74 | 7.4 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 9 | 38 | 4.2 | 0 |
| James White | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| J.J. Taylor | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakobi Meyers | 7 | 10 | 111 | 0 |
| James White | 4 | 4 | 52 | 0 |
| Damiere Byrd | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| N'Keal Harry | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Sony Michel | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Dalton Keene | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Jakob Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin Asiasi | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 20/26 | 145 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salvon Ahmed | 23 | 122 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Matt Breida | 12 | 86 | 7.2 | 0 |
| Patrick Laird | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 2 |
| Lynn Bowden | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Malcolm Perry | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Durham Smythe | 5 | 5 | 40 | 0 |
| Lynn Bowden | 6 | 7 | 37 | 0 |
| Isaiah Ford | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Adam Shaheen | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Patrick Laird | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Salvon Ahmed | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
2.07%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.7%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.75
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+3.22