Closing spread
PIT -14.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
-4.8est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.035EPA / play-0.041
- 44.0%Success rate44.2%
- +0.118EPA / dropback+0.005
- -0.134EPA / rush-0.122
- 7.4%Explosive rate6.5%
- -0.90CPOE+0.03
- 42.1%Third-down rate37.1%
- 70.3%Red-zone TD rate52.0%
- 2.12Points / drive1.87
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 40–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.1 points. CIN are 18-37-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 20/38 | 170 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benny Snell | 18 | 84 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Anthony McFarland | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jaylen Samuels | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
| Chase Claypool | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diontae Johnson | 8 | 13 | 59 | 1 |
| Chase Claypool | 3 | 8 | 54 | 0 |
| Benny Snell | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 3 | 6 | 15 | 0 |
| Jaylen Samuels | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Anthony McFarland | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Eric Ebron | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| James Washington | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Finley | 7/13 | 89 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giovani Bernard | 25 | 83 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Ryan Finley | 10 | 47 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Samaje Perine | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Trayveon Williams | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 2 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| Tee Higgins | 3 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 1 | 1 | 14 | 1 |
| Drew Sample | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Alex Erickson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
36.5%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.23
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-3.26
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-4.78