Closing spread
PIT -14.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
-4.8est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Steelers
- OutKevin DotsonGShoulder· DNP
- QuestionableJames ConnerRBQuadricep· Limited
Bengals
- OutBrandon AllenQBKnee· DNP
- OutLogan WilsonLBAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableBrandon WilsonSHamstring· Full
- LimitedMackensie AlexanderCBKnee
Win probability
- Bengals
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.035EPA / play-0.041
- 44.0%Success rate44.2%
- +0.118EPA / dropback+0.005
- -0.134EPA / rush-0.122
- 7.4%Explosive rate6.5%
- -0.90CPOE+0.03
- 42.1%Third-down rate37.1%
- 70.3%Red-zone TD rate52.0%
- 2.12Points / drive1.87
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 41–16 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. CIN are 18-38-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PIT–CIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CIN | Q1 14:00 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q1 11:54 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CIN | Q1 10:58 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q1 9:22 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| CIN | Q1 9:16 | 5 | 9 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| PIT | Q1 5:12 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–3 |
| CIN | Q1 3:34 | 4 | 35 | Missed field goal | 0–3 |
| PIT | Q1 1:39 | 3 | -7 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| CIN | Q1 0:49 | 7 | 38 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| PIT | Q2 12:05 | 10 | 22 | Turnover | 0–10 |
| CIN | Q2 5:52 | 3 | 26 | Touchdown | 0–17 |
| PIT | Q2 4:20 | 5 | 12 | Punt | 0–17 |
| CIN | Q2 2:29 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–17 |
| PIT | Q2 1:06 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–17 |
| CIN | Q2 0:08 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 0–17 |
| CIN | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–17 |
| PIT | Q3 13:34 | 4 | 67 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| CIN | Q3 12:07 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–17 |
| PIT | Q3 10:27 | 9 | 67 | Field goal | 10–17 |
| CIN | Q3 5:27 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 10–17 |
| PIT | Q3 3:47 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 10–17 |
| CIN | Q3 2:15 | 9 | 75 | Touchdown | 10–24 |
| PIT | Q4 11:21 | 13 | 64 | Touchdown | 17–24 |
| CIN | Q4 5:32 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 17–24 |
| PIT | Q4 2:17 | 4 | 0 | Turnover on downs | 17–24 |
| CIN | Q4 1:52 | 3 | 9 | Field goal | 17–27 |
| PIT | Q4 0:12 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 20/38 | 170 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benny Snell | 18 | 84 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Anthony McFarland | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jaylen Samuels | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
| Chase Claypool | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diontae Johnson | 8 | 13 | 59 | 1 |
| Chase Claypool | 3 | 8 | 54 | 0 |
| Benny Snell | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 3 | 6 | 15 | 0 |
| Jaylen Samuels | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Anthony McFarland | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Eric Ebron | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| James Washington | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Finley | 7/13 | 89 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giovani Bernard | 25 | 83 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Ryan Finley | 10 | 47 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Samaje Perine | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Trayveon Williams | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 2 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| Tee Higgins | 3 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 1 | 1 | 14 | 1 |
| Drew Sample | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Alex Erickson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
36.5%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.23
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-3.26
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-4.78