2020 · Week 16 · Division

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

17·37

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Andy Dalton

AT&T Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

PHI -3

Total

50

Model margin

-0.9est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapCowboys
  • -0.055EPA / play-0.029
  • 41.8%Success rate46.1%
  • -0.043EPA / dropback-0.004
  • -0.081EPA / rush-0.073
  • 7.8%Explosive rate7.8%
  • -4.93CPOE-1.42
  • 36.0%Third-down rate41.5%
  • 67.6%Red-zone TD rate52.0%
  • 1.61Points / drive1.87
  • 2.6%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 29–27 since 1999

DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45 points. DAL are 28-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7DAL @ PHI38–21DAL
2025 · W12PHI @ DAL21–24DAL
2025 · W1DAL @ PHI20–24PHI
2024 · W17DAL @ PHI7–41PHI
2024 · W10PHI @ DAL34–6PHI
2023 · W14PHI @ DAL13–33DAL
2023 · W9DAL @ PHI23–28PHI
2022 · W16PHI @ DAL34–40DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–DAL
PHIQ1 15:001255Touchdown7–0
DALQ1 9:00632Field goal7–3
PHIQ1 6:08181Touchdown14–3
DALQ1 5:4839Punt14–3
PHIQ1 4:2838Punt14–3
DALQ1 2:241063Touchdown14–10
PHIQ2 13:09749Punt14–10
DALQ2 9:16675Field goal14–13
PHIQ2 5:53955Field goal17–13
DALQ2 2:091175Touchdown17–20
PHIQ2 0:12337End of half17–20
DALQ3 15:00575Touchdown17–27
PHIQ3 12:2637Punt17–27
DALQ3 10:53675Field goal17–30
PHIQ3 8:31433Punt17–30
DALQ3 6:0739Punt17–30
PHIQ3 3:59417Punt17–30
DALQ3 1:48317Turnover17–30
PHIQ3 0:38523Turnover on downs17–30
DALQ4 14:00631Punt17–30
PHIQ4 10:141270Turnover17–30
DALQ4 6:3330Punt17–30
PHIQ4 4:1323Turnover17–30
DALQ4 3:54753Touchdown17–37
PHIQ4 1:53839Turnover17–37
DALQ4 0:3000End of half17–37

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts21/3934212

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jalen Hurts9697.70
Miles Sanders15573.81
Boston Scott2178.50
Jordan Howard382.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeSean Jackson11811
Quez Watkins23570
Dallas Goedert33380
Zach Ertz37330
Jalen Reagor37300
Greg Ward23270
Miles Sanders46270
Travis Fulgham23270
Alshon Jeffery11220

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton22/3037731

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott191055.50
CeeDee Lamb11919.01
Andy Dalton5153.00
Tony Pollard9121.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amari Cooper461210
Michael Gallup681212
CeeDee Lamb35651
Ezekiel Elliott44340
Dalton Schultz34210
Tony Pollard1280
Blake Bell1170

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.2%2.8%4.3%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

7.44%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.5%

Expected total

40.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.32
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.98
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.95