Closing spread
PHI -3
Total
50
Model margin
-0.9est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.055EPA / play-0.029
- 41.8%Success rate46.1%
- -0.043EPA / dropback-0.004
- -0.081EPA / rush-0.073
- 7.8%Explosive rate7.8%
- -4.93CPOE-1.42
- 36.0%Third-down rate41.5%
- 67.6%Red-zone TD rate52.0%
- 1.61Points / drive1.87
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 29–26 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. DAL are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 21/39 | 342 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 9 | 69 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 15 | 57 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Boston Scott | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Jordan Howard | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeSean Jackson | 1 | 1 | 81 | 1 |
| Quez Watkins | 2 | 3 | 57 | 0 |
| Dallas Goedert | 3 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 3 | 7 | 33 | 0 |
| Jalen Reagor | 3 | 7 | 30 | 0 |
| Greg Ward | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 4 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Travis Fulgham | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 22/30 | 377 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 19 | 105 | 5.5 | 0 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 1 |
| Andy Dalton | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 9 | 12 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amari Cooper | 4 | 6 | 121 | 0 |
| Michael Gallup | 6 | 8 | 121 | 2 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 3 | 5 | 65 | 1 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 4 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Dalton Schultz | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Blake Bell | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
7.44%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.5%
Expected total
40.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.32
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-3.98
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.95