2020 · Week 16 · Division

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB C.J. Beathard

20·12

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

State Farm Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

ARI -6

Total

49

Model margin

+0.7est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

3.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapCardinals
  • +0.010EPA / play+0.051
  • 45.8%Success rate46.0%
  • +0.089EPA / dropback+0.087
  • -0.106EPA / rush-0.009
  • 9.4%Explosive rate9.3%
  • -1.74CPOE+2.07
  • 39.6%Third-down rate40.2%
  • 71.8%Red-zone TD rate71.9%
  • 2.03Points / drive2.19
  • 2.5%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 29–22 since 1999

SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. ARI are 24-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3ARI @ SF30–36SF
2025 · W11SF @ ARI41–22SF
2025 · W3ARI @ SF15–16SF
2024 · W18SF @ ARI24–47ARI
2024 · W5ARI @ SF24–23ARI
2023 · W15SF @ ARI45–29SF
2023 · W4ARI @ SF16–35SF
2022 · W18ARI @ SF13–38SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–ARI
ARIQ1 15:001074Field goal0–3
SFQ1 10:10511Punt0–3
ARIQ1 7:2830Punt0–3
SFQ1 6:56879Touchdown7–3
ARIQ1 2:441041Punt7–3
SFQ2 12:06645Punt7–3
ARIQ2 8:52825Punt7–3
SFQ2 5:1730Punt7–3
ARIQ2 3:10939Field goal7–6
SFQ2 0:35427Turnover7–6
ARIQ2 0:0825End of half7–6
SFQ3 15:00763Missed field goal7–6
ARIQ3 11:073-11Punt7–6
SFQ3 9:16771Touchdown14–6
ARIQ3 5:13111Turnover14–6
SFQ3 5:043-3Punt14–6
ARIQ3 4:031575Touchdown14–12
SFQ4 12:0839Punt14–12
ARIQ4 10:13413Turnover on downs14–12
SFQ4 9:00235Touchdown20–12
ARIQ4 8:361061Turnover20–12
SFQ4 4:37762Missed field goal20–12
ARIQ4 1:05517Turnover on downs20–12
SFQ4 0:1400End of half20–12

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
C.J. Beathard13/2218230

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jeff Wilson221838.30
C.J. Beathard3186.00
Brandon Aiyuk11616.00
Jerick McKinnon144.00
Tevin Coleman231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
George Kittle45920
Jerick McKinnon34280
Jeff Wilson12211
Kendrick Bourne11160
Brandon Aiyuk12150
Jordan Reed0200
Tevin Coleman1100
Richie James0100

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray31/5024701

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kyler Murray8759.40
Kenyan Drake18452.51
D.J. Foster100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Christian Kirk710760
KeeSean Johnson23500
DeAndre Hopkins812480
Larry Fitzgerald68280
Dan Arnold35250
Chase Edmonds2380
Darrell Daniels1270
Kenyan Drake2250
Seth DeValve0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +64.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

2.98%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.9%

Expected total

39.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.24
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.28
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.67