Closing spread
ARI -6
Total
49
Model margin
+0.7est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.010EPA / play+0.051
- 45.8%Success rate46.0%
- +0.089EPA / dropback+0.087
- -0.106EPA / rush-0.009
- 9.4%Explosive rate9.3%
- -1.74CPOE+2.07
- 39.6%Third-down rate40.2%
- 71.8%Red-zone TD rate71.9%
- 2.03Points / drive2.19
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 28–22 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. ARI are 23-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Beathard | 13/22 | 182 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Wilson | 22 | 183 | 8.3 | 0 |
| C.J. Beathard | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | 4 | 5 | 92 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Jeff Wilson | 1 | 2 | 21 | 1 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Jordan Reed | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Richie James | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 31/50 | 247 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 8 | 75 | 9.4 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 18 | 45 | 2.5 | 1 |
| D.J. Foster | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Kirk | 7 | 10 | 76 | 0 |
| KeeSean Johnson | 2 | 3 | 50 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 8 | 12 | 48 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 6 | 8 | 28 | 0 |
| Dan Arnold | 3 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Darrell Daniels | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Seth DeValve | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
2.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.9%
Expected total
39.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.24
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-1.28
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.67