2020 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

7·18

Rams

Los Angeles

QB John Wolford

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

LA -1

Total

42

Model margin

+3.4est.

LA perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Rams

Win probability

  • Rams
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Rams winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapRams
  • +0.051EPA / play-0.013
  • 46.0%Success rate44.6%
  • +0.087EPA / dropback+0.032
  • -0.009EPA / rush-0.081
  • 9.3%Explosive rate9.2%
  • +2.07CPOE+0.37
  • 40.2%Third-down rate44.2%
  • 71.9%Red-zone TD rate59.0%
  • 2.19Points / drive1.76
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LA lead 29–21 since 1999

Meetings average 42.8 points. LA are 25-24-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6ARI @ LA18–16ARI
2025 · W18ARI @ LA20–37RAMS
2025 · W14LA @ ARI45–17RAMS
2024 · W17ARI @ LA9–13RAMS
2024 · W2LA @ ARI10–41ARI
2023 · W12LA @ ARI37–14RAMS
2023 · W6ARI @ LA9–26RAMS
2022 · W10ARI @ LA27–17ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–LA
ARIQ1 15:00716Punt0–0
LAQ1 11:31210Turnover0–0
ARIQ1 10:48214Touchdown7–0
LAQ1 10:0933Punt7–0
ARIQ1 8:3036Punt7–0
LAQ1 7:011683Field goal7–3
ARIQ2 14:1736Punt7–3
LAQ2 13:011381Turnover7–3
ARIQ2 6:0421Safety7–5
LAQ2 5:2138Punt7–5
ARIQ2 2:593-2Punt7–5
LAQ2 1:5334Punt7–5
ARIQ2 1:14515Opp touchdown7–12
ARIQ2 0:2000End of half7–12
LAQ3 15:001459Field goal7–15
ARIQ3 6:16652Punt7–15
LAQ3 3:111071Field goal7–18
ARIQ4 14:251056Missed field goal7–18
LAQ4 9:0132Punt7–18
ARIQ4 7:49823Punt7–18
LAQ4 4:24612Punt7–18
ARIQ4 0:19328End of half7–18

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chris Streveler11/1610511
Kyler Murray8/118700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenyan Drake10363.60
Chris Streveler3124.00
Kyler Murray231.50
Chase Edmonds3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dan Arnold33460
Trent Sherfield46440
DeAndre Hopkins410350
Chase Edmonds22280
Kenyan Drake33150
KeeSean Johnson22130
Jonathan Ward11111

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
John Wolford22/3823101

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
John Wolford6569.30
Cam Akers21341.60
Malcolm Brown3206.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cam Akers44520
Van Jefferson48500
Tyler Higbee34410
Robert Woods47360
Josh Reynolds46290
Gerald Everett27250
Malcolm Brown11-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.2%

Expected total

38.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.65
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.13
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+3.41