Closing spread
LA -1
Total
42
Model margin
+3.4est.
LA perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Rams
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.051EPA / play-0.013
- 46.0%Success rate44.6%
- +0.087EPA / dropback+0.032
- -0.009EPA / rush-0.081
- 9.3%Explosive rate9.2%
- +2.07CPOE+0.37
- 40.2%Third-down rate44.2%
- 71.9%Red-zone TD rate59.0%
- 2.19Points / drive1.76
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 29–20 since 1999
RAMS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43 points. LA are 25-23-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Streveler | 11/16 | 105 | 1 | 1 |
| Kyler Murray | 8/11 | 87 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenyan Drake | 10 | 36 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Chris Streveler | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Kyler Murray | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Arnold | 3 | 3 | 46 | 0 |
| Trent Sherfield | 4 | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 4 | 10 | 35 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| KeeSean Johnson | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Jonathan Ward | 1 | 1 | 11 | 1 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Wolford | 22/38 | 231 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Wolford | 6 | 56 | 9.3 | 0 |
| Cam Akers | 21 | 34 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Akers | 4 | 4 | 52 | 0 |
| Van Jefferson | 4 | 8 | 50 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 3 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 4 | 7 | 36 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 4 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 2 | 7 | 25 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.2%
Expected total
38.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.65
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.13
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.41