2020 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

38·3

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Brandon Allen

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · grass · 39°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

BAL -13.5

Total

46

Model margin

-6.3est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapBengals
  • +0.109EPA / play-0.041
  • 45.2%Success rate44.2%
  • +0.125EPA / dropback+0.005
  • +0.093EPA / rush-0.122
  • 10.3%Explosive rate6.5%
  • -0.32CPOE+0.03
  • 49.8%Third-down rate37.1%
  • 71.9%Red-zone TD rate52.0%
  • 2.64Points / drive1.87
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 30–26 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. CIN are 29-25-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7CIN @ BAL35–13CIN
2025 · W15BAL @ CIN24–0BAL
2025 · W13CIN @ BAL32–14CIN
2024 · W10CIN @ BAL34–35BAL
2024 · W5BAL @ CIN41–38BAL
2023 · W11CIN @ BAL20–34BAL
2023 · W2BAL @ CIN27–24BAL
2022 · playoffsBAL @ CIN17–24CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–CIN
BALQ1 15:001269Field goal3–0
CINQ1 8:0842Punt3–0
BALQ1 6:40669Touchdown10–0
CINQ1 3:4832Punt10–0
BALQ1 2:08619Turnover10–0
CINQ2 14:0333Punt10–0
BALQ2 13:051798Touchdown17–0
CINQ2 4:26755Field goal17–3
BALQ2 0:3213End of half17–3
CINQ3 15:00520Punt17–3
BALQ3 12:35575Touchdown24–3
CINQ3 9:553-2Punt24–3
BALQ3 8:541050Touchdown31–3
CINQ3 3:44455Turnover31–3
BALQ3 2:38280Touchdown38–3
CINQ3 1:4533Punt38–3
BALQ4 14:52956Turnover on downs38–3
CINQ4 9:1634Punt38–3
BALQ4 8:2033Punt38–3
CINQ4 5:55632Turnover38–3
BALQ4 2:5033Punt38–3
CINQ4 1:03221End of half38–3

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson10/1811331
Tyler Huntley1/1800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
J.K. Dobbins1316012.32
Lamar Jackson11978.80
Gus Edwards12605.00
Mark Ingram9394.30
Devin Duvernay12222.00
Justice Hill22110.50
Tyler Huntley650.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Miles Boykin12431
Marquise Brown58412
Mark Andrews47270
Gus Edwards11100
Devin Duvernay0100

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brandon Allen6/214802

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Trayveon Williams47418.50
Samaje Perine9515.70
Tyler Boyd11111.00
Giovani Bernard372.30
Brandon Allen122.00
Alex Erickson122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cethan Carter12210
Drew Sample23150
Alex Erickson1380
Trayveon Williams1130
Tyler Boyd1310
A.J. Green0600
Giovani Bernard0100
Tee Higgins0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -13.53.2%3.3%5.0%3.2%7.3%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

1.89%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

32.6%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.76
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.24
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-6.30