Closing spread
BAL -13.5
Total
46
Model margin
-6.3est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.109EPA / play-0.041
- 45.2%Success rate44.2%
- +0.125EPA / dropback+0.005
- +0.093EPA / rush-0.122
- 10.3%Explosive rate6.5%
- -0.32CPOE+0.03
- 49.8%Third-down rate37.1%
- 71.9%Red-zone TD rate52.0%
- 2.64Points / drive1.87
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 30–25 since 1999
Meetings average 43 points. CIN are 28-25-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 10/18 | 113 | 3 | 1 |
| Tyler Huntley | 1/1 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | 13 | 160 | 12.3 | 2 |
| Lamar Jackson | 11 | 97 | 8.8 | 0 |
| Gus Edwards | 12 | 60 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 9 | 39 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Devin Duvernay | 1 | 22 | 22.0 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 |
| Tyler Huntley | 6 | 5 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Boykin | 1 | 2 | 43 | 1 |
| Marquise Brown | 5 | 8 | 41 | 2 |
| Mark Andrews | 4 | 7 | 27 | 0 |
| Gus Edwards | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Devin Duvernay | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Allen | 6/21 | 48 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trayveon Williams | 4 | 74 | 18.5 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 9 | 51 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Brandon Allen | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Alex Erickson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cethan Carter | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Drew Sample | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Alex Erickson | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Trayveon Williams | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| A.J. Green | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tee Higgins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
1.89%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
32.6%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.76
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-2.24
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-6.30