Closing spread
DAL -1.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+0.6est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.029EPA / play-0.057
- 46.1%Success rate42.1%
- -0.004EPA / dropback-0.051
- -0.073EPA / rush-0.067
- 7.8%Explosive rate7.5%
- -1.42CPOE-2.04
- 41.5%Third-down rate35.1%
- 52.0%Red-zone TD rate51.7%
- 1.87Points / drive1.57
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 32–24 since 1999
NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. NYG are 29-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 29/47 | 244 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 7 | 48 | 6.9 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 14 | 42 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Tony Pollard | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalton Schultz | 7 | 10 | 70 | 0 |
| Michael Gallup | 4 | 8 | 49 | 0 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 5 | 7 | 43 | 0 |
| Amari Cooper | 6 | 9 | 41 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 3 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 17/25 | 229 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wayne Gallman | 11 | 65 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 2 | 24 | 12.0 | 1 |
| Daniel Jones | 9 | 17 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sterling Shepard | 8 | 10 | 112 | 1 |
| Dante Pettis | 2 | 2 | 43 | 1 |
| Darius Slayton | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Kaden Smith | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Levine Toilolo | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Austin Mack | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.5%
Expected total
40.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.16
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.55