2020 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Andy Dalton

19·23

Giants

New York

QB Daniel Jones

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 33°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

DAL -1.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+0.6est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapGiants
  • -0.029EPA / play-0.057
  • 46.1%Success rate42.1%
  • -0.004EPA / dropback-0.051
  • -0.073EPA / rush-0.067
  • 7.8%Explosive rate7.5%
  • -1.42CPOE-2.04
  • 41.5%Third-down rate35.1%
  • 52.0%Red-zone TD rate51.7%
  • 1.87Points / drive1.57
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 32–24 since 1999

NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. NYG are 29-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1DAL @ NYG20–28NYG
2025 · W18DAL @ NYG17–34NYG
2025 · W2NYG @ DAL37–40DAL
2024 · W13NYG @ DAL20–27DAL
2024 · W4DAL @ NYG20–15DAL
2023 · W10NYG @ DAL17–49DAL
2023 · W1DAL @ NYG40–0DAL
2022 · W12NYG @ DAL20–28DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–NYG
NYGQ1 15:00678Touchdown0–6
DALQ1 11:46710Punt0–6
NYGQ1 8:28312Turnover0–6
DALQ1 7:1057Field goal3–6
NYGQ1 5:03619Punt3–6
DALQ1 1:3436Punt3–6
NYGQ1 0:04415Punt3–6
DALQ2 13:2136Punt3–6
NYGQ2 11:3833Punt3–6
DALQ2 10:3930Punt3–6
NYGQ2 9:48650Touchdown3–13
DALQ2 6:42944Field goal6–13
NYGQ2 2:13662Touchdown6–20
DALQ2 0:45540Field goal9–20
DALQ3 15:0033Punt9–20
NYGQ3 14:0620Turnover9–20
DALQ3 13:131157Touchdown16–20
NYGQ3 8:39742Punt16–20
DALQ3 4:301262Field goal19–20
NYGQ4 14:163-9Punt19–20
DALQ4 12:33414Punt19–20
NYGQ4 10:37748Field goal19–23
DALQ4 6:271758Turnover19–23
NYGQ4 1:15219End of half19–23

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton29/4724401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Andy Dalton7486.90
Ezekiel Elliott14423.01
Tony Pollard5153.00
CeeDee Lamb133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dalton Schultz710700
Michael Gallup48490
CeeDee Lamb57430
Amari Cooper69410
Ezekiel Elliott34190
Tony Pollard35190
Cedrick Wilson Jr.1130

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones17/2522921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Wayne Gallman11655.90
Sterling Shepard22412.01
Daniel Jones9171.90
Alfred Morris5122.40
Dion Lewis177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Sterling Shepard8101121
Dante Pettis22431
Darius Slayton24220
Evan Engram24170
Kaden Smith11160
Levine Toilolo11100
Austin Mack1190
Dion Lewis0100
Alfred Morris0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -1.52.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.5%

Expected total

40.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.16
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.55