2020 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

35·16

Bears

Chicago

QB Mitch Trubisky

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 32°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

GB -4.5

Total

48.5

Model margin

-2.7est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapBears
  • +0.221EPA / play-0.016
  • 50.7%Success rate44.0%
  • +0.353EPA / dropback+0.014
  • +0.025EPA / rush-0.073
  • 10.1%Explosive rate7.5%
  • +6.90CPOE+1.28
  • 50.7%Third-down rate34.8%
  • 86.4%Red-zone TD rate57.4%
  • 2.98Points / drive1.97
  • 0.9%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 41–16 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. CHI are 18-38-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5CHI @ GB7–31GB
2025 · playoffsGB @ CHI27–31CHI
2025 · W16GB @ CHI16–22CHI
2025 · W14CHI @ GB21–28GB
2024 · W18CHI @ GB24–22CHI
2024 · W11GB @ CHI20–19GB
2023 · W18CHI @ GB9–17GB
2023 · W1GB @ CHI38–20GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–CHI
CHIQ1 15:001460Touchdown0–7
GBQ1 7:311364Touchdown7–7
CHIQ2 14:55512Punt7–7
CHIQ2 12:2038Field goal7–10
GBQ2 10:08383Touchdown14–10
CHIQ2 8:3123Turnover14–10
GBQ2 7:37742Touchdown21–10
CHIQ2 3:571357Field goal21–13
GBQ2 0:0300End of half21–13
GBQ3 15:00516Punt21–13
CHIQ3 12:201087Field goal21–16
GBQ3 5:3039Punt21–16
CHIQ3 4:261551Turnover on downs21–16
GBQ4 11:221276Touchdown28–16
CHIQ4 3:4724Turnover28–16
GBQ4 3:13326Touchdown35–16
CHIQ4 2:561174End of half35–16

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers19/2424040

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones11423.81
Jamaal Williams5265.20
Aaron Rodgers144.00
Marquez Valdes-Scantling144.00
AJ Dillon133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marquez Valdes-Scantling23871
Davante Adams66461
Aaron Jones45430
Robert Tonyan22181
Allen Lazard24170
Dominique Dafney11131
Marcedes Lewis1190
Tavon Austin1170
Equanimeous St. Brown0100

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mitchell Trubisky33/4225201

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Montgomery22693.11
Mitchell Trubisky4225.50
Cordarrelle Patterson4184.50
Artavis Pierce1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darnell Mooney1113930
David Montgomery99630
Cole Kmet78410
Allen Robinson25370
Anthony Miller22130
Jimmy Graham2250
Javon Wims0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -4.52.7%3.0%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.9%2.7%3.9%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

41.8%

Expected total

47.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.42
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.72