Closing spread
GB -4.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
-2.7est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.221EPA / play-0.016
- 50.7%Success rate44.0%
- +0.353EPA / dropback+0.014
- +0.025EPA / rush-0.073
- 10.1%Explosive rate7.5%
- +6.90CPOE+1.28
- 50.7%Third-down rate34.8%
- 86.4%Red-zone TD rate57.4%
- 2.98Points / drive1.97
- 0.9%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 40–16 since 1999
CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.8 points. CHI are 18-37-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 19/24 | 240 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 11 | 42 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Jamaal Williams | 5 | 26 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| AJ Dillon | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 2 | 3 | 87 | 1 |
| Davante Adams | 6 | 6 | 46 | 1 |
| Aaron Jones | 4 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Robert Tonyan | 2 | 2 | 18 | 1 |
| Allen Lazard | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Dominique Dafney | 1 | 1 | 13 | 1 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 33/42 | 252 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 22 | 69 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Artavis Pierce | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darnell Mooney | 11 | 13 | 93 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 9 | 9 | 63 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet | 7 | 8 | 41 | 0 |
| Allen Robinson | 2 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Anthony Miller | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Javon Wims | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
41.8%
Expected total
47.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.42
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.72