2020 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Mike Glennon

14·28

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Philip Rivers

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -15.5

Total

48

Model margin

+9.3est.

IND perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapColts
  • -0.050EPA / play+0.083
  • 42.0%Success rate46.8%
  • -0.034EPA / dropback+0.181
  • -0.086EPA / rush-0.048
  • 8.3%Explosive rate11.3%
  • -0.40CPOE-0.03
  • 40.6%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 64.8%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
  • 1.74Points / drive2.35
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 27–22 since 1999

JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. IND are 17-31-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17JAX @ IND23–17JAX
2025 · W14IND @ JAX19–36JAX
2024 · W18JAX @ IND23–26IND
2024 · W5IND @ JAX34–37JAX
2023 · W6IND @ JAX20–37JAX
2023 · W1JAX @ IND31–21JAX
2022 · W6JAX @ IND27–34IND
2022 · W2IND @ JAX0–24JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–IND
JAXQ1 15:00519Punt0–0
INDQ1 12:59678Touchdown0–7
JAXQ1 10:1637Punt0–7
INDQ1 8:421395Field goal0–10
JAXQ1 1:16615Turnover0–10
INDQ2 12:57315Touchdown0–17
JAXQ2 11:403-7Punt0–17
INDQ2 10:1136Punt0–17
JAXQ2 8:21527Turnover on downs0–17
INDQ2 6:21719Field goal0–20
JAXQ2 2:38775Touchdown7–20
INDQ2 0:27437Missed field goal7–20
INDQ3 15:00436Missed field goal7–20
JAXQ3 12:071061Touchdown14–20
INDQ3 6:2639Punt14–20
JAXQ3 4:2130Punt14–20
INDQ3 4:01441Turnover14–20
JAXQ3 1:46612Punt14–20
INDQ4 14:45729Punt14–20
JAXQ4 11:02727Punt14–20
INDQ4 7:55512Punt14–20
JAXQ4 5:5034Punt14–20
INDQ4 4:26250Touchdown14–28
JAXQ4 3:35743Turnover on downs14–28
INDQ4 2:20312End of half14–28

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Glennon26/4226120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dare Ogunbowale14503.60
Terry Godwin133.00
Mike Glennon122.00
Laviska Shenault Jr.1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Conley79870
Laviska Shenault Jr.69682
Terry Godwin34320
Keelan Cole37230
Dare Ogunbowale47220
Tyler Eifert12100
James O'Shaughnessy11100
Eric Saubert1190

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Philip Rivers17/2716411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor302538.42
Nyheim Hines2178.50
Jacoby Brissett231.50
Michael Pittman122.00
Philip Rivers2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nyheim Hines67500
Zach Pascal24410
Michael Pittman22280
T.Y. Hilton37271
Jack Doyle33170
Jonathan Taylor1210
Ashton Dulin0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +15.56.8%3.1%4.9%3.5%3.5%2.9%2.5%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

1.84%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

73.0%

Expected total

46.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.21
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.43
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+9.35