Closing spread
IND -15.5
Total
48
Model margin
+9.3est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.050EPA / play+0.083
- 42.0%Success rate46.8%
- -0.034EPA / dropback+0.181
- -0.086EPA / rush-0.048
- 8.3%Explosive rate11.3%
- -0.40CPOE-0.03
- 40.6%Third-down rate39.7%
- 64.8%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
- 1.74Points / drive2.35
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 27–22 since 1999
JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. IND are 17-31-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Glennon | 26/42 | 261 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dare Ogunbowale | 14 | 50 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Terry Godwin | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Mike Glennon | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Conley | 7 | 9 | 87 | 0 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 6 | 9 | 68 | 2 |
| Terry Godwin | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Keelan Cole | 3 | 7 | 23 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 4 | 7 | 22 | 0 |
| Tyler Eifert | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| James O'Shaughnessy | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Eric Saubert | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 17/27 | 164 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 30 | 253 | 8.4 | 2 |
| Nyheim Hines | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Philip Rivers | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nyheim Hines | 6 | 7 | 50 | 0 |
| Zach Pascal | 2 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 3 | 7 | 27 | 1 |
| Jack Doyle | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Ashton Dulin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
1.84%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
73.0%
Expected total
46.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.21
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+2.43
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+9.35