Closing spread
LAC -7
Total
43
Model margin
-1.7est.
KC perspective
Push chance
4.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.043EPA / play+0.177
- 43.8%Success rate50.2%
- +0.154EPA / dropback+0.288
- -0.141EPA / rush-0.056
- 7.9%Explosive rate11.0%
- +0.07CPOE+2.60
- 45.1%Third-down rate49.5%
- 60.1%Red-zone TD rate70.8%
- 2.02Points / drive2.85
- 1.3%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–23 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.9 points. KC are 26-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 22/31 | 302 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jackson | 9 | 72 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Kalen Ballage | 13 | 36 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Austin Ekeler | 7 | 18 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Justin Herbert | 6 | 9 | 1.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Williams | 6 | 7 | 108 | 1 |
| Stephen Anderson | 3 | 3 | 52 | 0 |
| Donald Parham | 3 | 4 | 37 | 1 |
| Tyron Johnson | 2 | 2 | 35 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 6 | 7 | 33 | 1 |
| Justin Jackson | 1 | 2 | 32 | 0 |
| Jalen Guyton | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Henne | 23/32 | 218 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darwin Thompson | 14 | 45 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Chad Henne | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darwin Thompson | 7 | 7 | 65 | 1 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 6 | 7 | 58 | 0 |
| Byron Pringle | 4 | 6 | 52 | 1 |
| Mecole Hardman | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Gehrig Dieter | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Deon Yelder | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0 |
| Darrel Williams | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
4.64%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.6%
Expected total
46.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.05
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-3.33
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.68