2020 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

38·21

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Chad Henne

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 35°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

LAC -7

Total

43

Model margin

-1.7est.

KC perspective

Push chance

4.6%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chargersedge mapChiefs
  • +0.043EPA / play+0.177
  • 43.8%Success rate50.2%
  • +0.154EPA / dropback+0.288
  • -0.141EPA / rush-0.056
  • 7.9%Explosive rate11.0%
  • +0.07CPOE+2.60
  • 45.1%Third-down rate49.5%
  • 60.1%Red-zone TD rate70.8%
  • 2.02Points / drive2.85
  • 1.3%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 32–23 since 1999

Meetings average 44.6 points. KC are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6LAC @ KC6–22KC
2025 · W15LAC @ KC16–13CHARGERS
2025 · W1KC @ LAC21–27CHARGERS
2024 · W14LAC @ KC17–19KC
2024 · W4KC @ LAC17–10KC
2023 · W18KC @ LAC13–12KC
2023 · W7LAC @ KC17–31KC
2022 · W11KC @ LAC30–27KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLAC–KC
KCQ1 15:00753Touchdown0–7
LACQ1 11:191275Touchdown7–7
KCQ1 4:231367Touchdown7–14
LACQ2 13:41523Punt7–14
LACQ2 11:57417Touchdown14–14
KCQ2 9:5143Punt14–14
LACQ2 8:171577Turnover on downs14–14
KCQ2 1:542-1Safety16–14
LACQ2 1:43723Touchdown24–14
KCQ2 0:161-1End of half24–14
LACQ3 15:00722Punt24–14
KCQ3 11:081363Turnover on downs24–14
LACQ3 4:04670Touchdown31–14
KCQ3 0:47974Touchdown31–21
LACQ4 11:49677Touchdown38–21
KCQ4 8:09410Punt38–21
LACQ4 5:24634End of half38–21

Box score

Individual performances

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert22/3130230

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Justin Jackson9728.00
Kalen Ballage13362.81
Austin Ekeler7182.60
Justin Herbert691.51

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Williams671081
Stephen Anderson33520
Donald Parham34371
Tyron Johnson22350
Austin Ekeler67331
Justin Jackson12320
Jalen Guyton0400

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chad Henne23/3221820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Darwin Thompson14453.21
Chad Henne200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darwin Thompson77651
Demarcus Robinson67580
Byron Pringle46521
Mecole Hardman22250
Gehrig Dieter12100
Deon Yelder2660
Darrel Williams1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -72.9%4.6%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.8%4.1%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

4.64%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.6%

Expected total

46.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.05
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.33
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.68