Closing spread
MIN -3
Total
54
Model margin
-2.1est.
DET perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Vikings
- OutCameron DantzlerCBHamstring· DNP
- OutChris JonesCBGroin· DNP
- OutDalvin CookRBNot Injury Related· DNP
- OutEric KendricksLBCalf· DNP
- OutIfeadi OdenigboDEChest· DNP
- OutJalyn HolmesDEGroin· DNP
- QuestionableDan BaileyKBack· Limited
Lions
- OutJoe DahlGBack· DNP
- OutKenny GolladayWRHip· DNP
- OutTyrell CrosbyTAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableFrank RagnowCThroat· Limited
- QuestionableJamie CollinsLBNeck· Limited
- QuestionableMatthew StaffordQBright Thumb· Limited
Win probability
- Lions
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.089EPA / play+0.014
- 49.1%Success rate45.5%
- +0.175EPA / dropback+0.103
- -0.025EPA / rush-0.156
- 11.4%Explosive rate8.4%
- +4.45CPOE-1.27
- 41.2%Third-down rate41.6%
- 74.1%Red-zone TD rate63.0%
- 2.30Points / drive2.14
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 36–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.3 points. DET are 26-25-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIN–DET |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DET | Q1 13:09 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIN | Q1 11:37 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIN | Q1 9:23 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DET | Q1 8:21 | 7 | 90 | Touchdown | 0–6 |
| MIN | Q1 4:45 | 8 | 68 | Touchdown | 7–6 |
| DET | Q1 0:34 | 6 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–13 |
| MIN | Q2 13:19 | 8 | 79 | Touchdown | 14–13 |
| DET | Q2 8:51 | 4 | 39 | Field goal | 14–16 |
| MIN | Q2 7:13 | 7 | 46 | Missed field goal | 14–16 |
| DET | Q2 2:53 | 6 | 7 | Punt | 14–16 |
| MIN | Q2 0:55 | 7 | 73 | Touchdown | 21–16 |
| DET | Q2 0:04 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 21–16 |
| DET | Q3 15:00 | 2 | 33 | Touchdown | 21–23 |
| MIN | Q3 14:09 | 6 | 62 | Touchdown | 28–23 |
| DET | Q3 11:35 | 3 | 5 | Turnover | 28–23 |
| MIN | Q3 9:41 | 5 | 19 | Field goal | 31–23 |
| DET | Q3 7:55 | 10 | 75 | Touchdown | 31–29 |
| MIN | Q3 3:02 | 17 | 67 | Touchdown | 37–29 |
| DET | Q4 10:32 | 15 | 85 | Touchdown | 37–35 |
| MIN | Q4 4:26 | 8 | 76 | End of half | 37–35 |
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 28/40 | 405 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Mattison | 21 | 95 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Mike Boone | 5 | 29 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 5 | 1 | 0.2 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 9 | 12 | 133 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 4 | 5 | 57 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 3 | 3 | 50 | 1 |
| Chad Beebe | 2 | 3 | 44 | 1 |
| Tyler Conklin | 3 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| Irv Smith | 2 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 3 | 3 | 7 | 1 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 20/31 | 293 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 7 | 63 | 9.0 | 1 |
| D'Andre Swift | 12 | 54 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Jones | 8 | 11 | 180 | 2 |
| Quintez Cephus | 2 | 3 | 51 | 1 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 2 | 6 | 13 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Jesse James | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Kerryon Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Hunter Bryant | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.3%
Expected total
48.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.76
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-2.13