2020 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Jets

New York

QB Sam Darnold

14·28

Patriots

New England

QB Cam Newton

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · grass · 33°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

NE -3

Total

41

Model margin

+2.8est.

NE perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapPatriots
  • -0.116EPA / play+0.004
  • 40.9%Success rate46.5%
  • -0.098EPA / dropback-0.040
  • -0.146EPA / rush+0.052
  • 7.4%Explosive rate9.4%
  • -2.07CPOE-2.06
  • 34.4%Third-down rate41.3%
  • 41.2%Red-zone TD rate54.0%
  • 1.24Points / drive1.88
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 43–14 since 1999

NE have won 4 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NE are 32-23-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6NYJ @ NE19–26NE
2025 · W17NE @ NYJ42–10NE
2025 · W11NYJ @ NE14–27NE
2024 · W8NYJ @ NE22–25NE
2024 · W3NE @ NYJ3–24NYJ
2023 · W18NYJ @ NE17–3NYJ
2023 · W3NE @ NYJ15–10NE
2022 · W11NYJ @ NE3–10NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–NE
NEQ1 15:00899Touchdown0–7
NYJQ1 11:23834Punt0–7
NEQ1 7:02521Punt0–7
NYJQ1 4:22632Punt0–7
NEQ2 14:48518Punt0–7
NYJQ2 12:30410Punt0–7
NEQ2 10:051135Punt0–7
NYJQ2 5:471190Touchdown7–7
NEQ2 1:40626Punt7–7
NYJQ2 0:3818End of half7–7
NYJQ3 15:00675Touchdown14–7
NEQ3 11:40627Punt14–7
NYJQ3 9:0739Punt14–7
NEQ3 7:071058Touchdown14–14
NYJQ3 2:22415Turnover14–14
NEQ3 0:09445Touchdown14–21
NYJQ4 13:5634Punt14–21
NEQ4 12:11242Touchdown14–28
NYJQ4 11:421665Turnover14–28
NEQ4 3:49833Punt14–28
NYJQ4 0:1618End of half14–28

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold23/3426612

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Adams11474.31
Ty Johnson11454.10
Braxton Berrios2168.00
Sam Darnold133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Breshad Perriman36840
Chris Herndon79631
Jamison Crowder44310
Ty Johnson22230
Braxton Berrios33200
Daniel Brown11180
Denzel Mims12150
Josh Adams24120
Vyncint Smith0200

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton21/3024230
Jakobi Meyers1/11910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cam Newton11797.20
Sony Michel16764.80
Jakobi Meyers177.00
Damiere Byrd144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jakobi Meyers67680
Sony Michel33601
Devin Asiasi23391
James White47311
Cam Newton11191
N'Keal Harry22170
Gunner Olszewski22140
Damiere Byrd1370
Dalton Keene1260

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.5%

Expected total

42.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.13
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+2.76