Closing spread
NE -3
Total
41
Model margin
+2.8est.
NE perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.116EPA / play+0.004
- 40.9%Success rate46.5%
- -0.098EPA / dropback-0.040
- -0.146EPA / rush+0.052
- 7.4%Explosive rate9.4%
- -2.07CPOE-2.06
- 34.4%Third-down rate41.3%
- 41.2%Red-zone TD rate54.0%
- 1.24Points / drive1.88
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 42–14 since 1999
NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NE are 32-22-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 23/34 | 266 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Adams | 11 | 47 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Ty Johnson | 11 | 45 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Braxton Berrios | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breshad Perriman | 3 | 6 | 84 | 0 |
| Chris Herndon | 7 | 9 | 63 | 1 |
| Jamison Crowder | 4 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Braxton Berrios | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Daniel Brown | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Denzel Mims | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Josh Adams | 2 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Vyncint Smith | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 21/30 | 242 | 3 | 0 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 1/1 | 19 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 11 | 79 | 7.2 | 0 |
| Sony Michel | 16 | 76 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Damiere Byrd | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakobi Meyers | 6 | 7 | 68 | 0 |
| Sony Michel | 3 | 3 | 60 | 1 |
| Devin Asiasi | 2 | 3 | 39 | 1 |
| James White | 4 | 7 | 31 | 1 |
| Cam Newton | 1 | 1 | 19 | 1 |
| N'Keal Harry | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Gunner Olszewski | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Damiere Byrd | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Dalton Keene | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.5%
Expected total
42.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.13
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.76