Closing spread
CLE -10.5
Total
45
Model margin
+1.1est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.035EPA / play+0.091
- 44.0%Success rate46.9%
- +0.118EPA / dropback+0.193
- -0.134EPA / rush-0.034
- 7.4%Explosive rate11.2%
- -0.90CPOE+2.55
- 42.1%Third-down rate45.5%
- 70.3%Red-zone TD rate71.8%
- 2.12Points / drive2.32
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 42–13–1 since 1999
Meetings average 38.9 points. CLE are 25-29-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Rudolph | 22/39 | 315 | 2 | 1 |
| Joshua Dobbs | 4/5 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 9 | 37 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Joshua Dobbs | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Anthony McFarland | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Benny Snell | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Mason Rudolph | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Claypool | 5 | 11 | 101 | 1 |
| Diontae Johnson | 3 | 4 | 96 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 6 | 8 | 65 | 1 |
| Vance McDonald | 5 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| James Conner | 5 | 8 | 25 | 0 |
| Kevin Rader | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| James Washington | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 2 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 17/27 | 196 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 14 | 108 | 7.7 | 1 |
| Baker Mayfield | 6 | 44 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 10 | 37 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashard Higgins | 2 | 3 | 55 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 5 | 6 | 51 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 4 | 5 | 37 | 1 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 2 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
1.34%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.1%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.08
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.49
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.14