2020 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Mason Rudolph

22·24

Browns

Cleveland

QB Baker Mayfield

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 38°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

CLE -10.5

Total

45

Model margin

+1.1est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapBrowns
  • +0.035EPA / play+0.091
  • 44.0%Success rate46.9%
  • +0.118EPA / dropback+0.193
  • -0.134EPA / rush-0.034
  • 7.4%Explosive rate11.2%
  • -0.90CPOE+2.55
  • 42.1%Third-down rate45.5%
  • 70.3%Red-zone TD rate71.8%
  • 2.12Points / drive2.32
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 42–14–1 since 1999

CLE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.1 points. CLE are 26-29-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4PIT @ CLE24–27CLE
2025 · W17PIT @ CLE6–13CLE
2025 · W6CLE @ PIT9–23PIT
2024 · W14CLE @ PIT14–27PIT
2024 · W12PIT @ CLE19–24CLE
2023 · W11PIT @ CLE10–13CLE
2023 · W2CLE @ PIT22–26PIT
2022 · W18CLE @ PIT14–28PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–CLE
PITQ1 15:00624Punt0–0
CLEQ1 12:10685Touchdown0–7
PITQ1 9:2939Punt0–7
CLEQ1 7:21835Punt0–7
PITQ1 2:52831Punt0–7
CLEQ2 14:05975Field goal0–10
PITQ2 9:451066Field goal3–10
CLEQ2 4:1036Punt3–10
PITQ2 2:25853Field goal6–10
CLEQ2 1:074-6Turnover on downs6–10
CLEQ3 15:00619Punt6–10
PITQ3 11:20652Field goal9–10
CLEQ3 8:29876Touchdown9–17
PITQ3 3:48514Turnover9–17
CLEQ3 1:31420Touchdown9–24
PITQ4 14:571375Touchdown16–24
CLEQ4 10:071038Turnover on downs16–24
PITQ4 3:37770Touchdown22–24
CLEQ4 1:23311End of half22–24

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mason Rudolph22/3931521
Joshua Dobbs4/5200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Conner9374.10
Joshua Dobbs22010.00
Anthony McFarland5173.40
Benny Snell3103.30
Mason Rudolph111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chase Claypool5111011
Diontae Johnson34960
JuJu Smith-Schuster68651
Vance McDonald56330
James Conner58250
Kevin Rader0100
James Washington0200
Ray-Ray McCloud22-30

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield17/2719610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nick Chubb141087.71
Baker Mayfield6447.30
Kareem Hunt10373.70
Jarvis Landry133.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rashard Higgins23550
Jarvis Landry56510
Austin Hooper45371
KhaDarel Hodge22250
David Njoku25130
Donovan Peoples-Jones13110
Kareem Hunt1140
Nick Chubb0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +10.57.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

1.34%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.1%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.08
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.49
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.14