2020 · Week 17 · Division
Final
Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 38°F · wind 10mph
Closing spread
WAS -6.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+3.0est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.051EPA / play-0.055
- 42.1%Success rate41.8%
- -0.063EPA / dropback-0.043
- -0.030EPA / rush-0.081
- 7.7%Explosive rate7.8%
- -1.32CPOE-4.93
- 40.2%Third-down rate36.0%
- 63.6%Red-zone TD rate67.6%
- 1.76Points / drive1.61
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 35–21 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. PHI are 27-26-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 22/32 | 162 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Gibson | 19 | 75 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Steven Sims | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Sims | 5 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Terry McLaurin | 7 | 8 | 40 | 1 |
| Logan Thomas | 3 | 6 | 37 | 1 |
| J.D. McKissic | 5 | 8 | 30 | 0 |
| Steven Sims | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 7/20 | 72 | 0 | 1 |
| Nate Sudfeld | 5/12 | 32 | 0 | 1 |
| Greg Ward | 1/1 | 15 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Scott | 15 | 65 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Jalen Hurts | 8 | 34 | 4.3 | 2 |
| Nate Sudfeld | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jason Huntley | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Corey Clement | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| John Hightower | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. Arcega-Whiteside | 2 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 3 | 6 | 16 | 0 |
| Travis Fulgham | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Jalen Reagor | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Boston Scott | 2 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Corey Clement | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Greg Ward | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Quez Watkins | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0 |
| Jason Huntley | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| John Hightower | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
2.62%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.0%
Expected total
39.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.74
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+3.98
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.95