2020 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Alex Smith

20·14

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 38°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

WAS -6.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+3.0est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapEagles
  • -0.051EPA / play-0.055
  • 42.1%Success rate41.8%
  • -0.063EPA / dropback-0.043
  • -0.030EPA / rush-0.081
  • 7.7%Explosive rate7.8%
  • -1.32CPOE-4.93
  • 40.2%Third-down rate36.0%
  • 63.6%Red-zone TD rate67.6%
  • 1.76Points / drive1.61
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 35–22 since 1999

Meetings average 45.4 points. PHI are 27-27-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8PHI @ WAS10–27WAS
2026 · W1WAS @ PHI22–24PHI
2025 · W18WAS @ PHI24–17WAS
2025 · W16PHI @ WAS29–18PHI
2024 · playoffsWAS @ PHI23–55PHI
2024 · W16PHI @ WAS33–36WAS
2024 · W11WAS @ PHI18–26PHI
2023 · W8PHI @ WAS38–31PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–PHI
PHIQ1 15:00510Punt0–0
WASQ1 12:321586Touchdown7–0
PHIQ1 4:1920Turnover7–0
WASQ1 4:0838Field goal10–0
PHIQ1 2:021344Touchdown10–7
WASQ2 10:18410Punt10–7
PHIQ2 8:03765Touchdown10–14
WASQ2 3:543-3Punt10–14
PHIQ2 1:5230Punt10–14
WASQ2 1:24950Touchdown17–14
PHIQ2 0:2027End of half17–14
WASQ3 15:0033Punt17–14
PHIQ3 12:3137Punt17–14
WASQ3 11:0235Punt17–14
PHIQ3 9:32835Punt17–14
WASQ3 4:5810Turnover17–14
PHIQ3 4:54711Turnover on downs17–14
WASQ3 1:54727Punt17–14
PHIQ4 12:3535Turnover17–14
WASQ4 11:37314Turnover17–14
PHIQ4 10:1525Turnover17–14
WASQ4 9:34411Field goal20–14
PHIQ4 7:4263Punt20–14
WASQ4 4:28837Punt20–14
PHIQ4 0:56724End of half20–14

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith22/3216222

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Antonio Gibson19753.90
Steven Sims11818.00
Peyton Barber4102.50
Alex Smith100.00
J.D. McKissic200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cam Sims55430
Terry McLaurin78401
Logan Thomas36371
J.D. McKissic58300
Steven Sims1160
Antonio Gibson1160

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts7/207201
Nate Sudfeld5/123201
Greg Ward1/11500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Boston Scott15654.30
Jalen Hurts8344.32
Nate Sudfeld2126.00
Jason Huntley252.50
Corey Clement111.00
John Hightower111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
J.J. Arcega-Whiteside23400
Zach Ertz36160
Travis Fulgham12150
Jalen Reagor11150
Boston Scott25140
Corey Clement1170
Greg Ward1360
Quez Watkins1560
Jason Huntley1100
John Hightower0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -6.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

2.62%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.0%

Expected total

39.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.74
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.98
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.95