Closing spread
PIT -5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+1.8est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Steelers
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.091EPA / play+0.035
- 46.9%Success rate44.0%
- +0.193EPA / dropback+0.118
- -0.034EPA / rush-0.134
- 11.2%Explosive rate7.4%
- +2.55CPOE-0.90
- 45.5%Third-down rate42.1%
- 71.8%Red-zone TD rate70.3%
- 2.32Points / drive2.12
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 42–13–1 since 1999
Meetings average 38.9 points. PIT are 29-25-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 21/34 | 263 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 18 | 76 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 8 | 48 | 6.0 | 2 |
| Baker Mayfield | 5 | 3 | 0.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarvis Landry | 5 | 8 | 92 | 1 |
| Nick Chubb | 4 | 4 | 69 | 1 |
| Austin Hooper | 7 | 11 | 46 | 1 |
| Rashard Higgins | 2 | 7 | 28 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 47/68 | 501 | 4 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 11 | 37 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Benny Snell | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 13 | 19 | 157 | 1 |
| Diontae Johnson | 11 | 16 | 117 | 0 |
| James Washington | 5 | 6 | 72 | 0 |
| Eric Ebron | 7 | 11 | 62 | 1 |
| Chase Claypool | 5 | 7 | 59 | 2 |
| James Conner | 5 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Benny Snell | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Vance McDonald | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
1.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.9%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.08
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.78