2020 · WC · Division

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Baker Mayfield

48·37

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 34°F · wind 1mph

Closing spread

PIT -5

Total

47.5

Model margin

+1.8est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

1.9%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapSteelers
  • +0.091EPA / play+0.035
  • 46.9%Success rate44.0%
  • +0.193EPA / dropback+0.118
  • -0.034EPA / rush-0.134
  • 11.2%Explosive rate7.4%
  • +2.55CPOE-0.90
  • 45.5%Third-down rate42.1%
  • 71.8%Red-zone TD rate70.3%
  • 2.32Points / drive2.12
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 42–14–1 since 1999

CLE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.1 points. PIT are 29-26-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4PIT @ CLE24–27CLE
2025 · W17PIT @ CLE6–13CLE
2025 · W6CLE @ PIT9–23PIT
2024 · W14CLE @ PIT14–27PIT
2024 · W12PIT @ CLE19–24CLE
2023 · W11PIT @ CLE10–13CLE
2023 · W2CLE @ PIT22–26PIT
2022 · W18CLE @ PIT14–28PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–PIT
PITQ1 15:0010Opp touchdown7–0
PITQ1 14:46723Turnover7–0
CLEQ1 10:44346Touchdown14–0
PITQ1 9:4639Punt14–0
CLEQ1 7:40665Touchdown21–0
PITQ1 4:40411Turnover21–0
CLEQ1 3:18315Touchdown28–0
PITQ1 1:561247Punt28–0
CLEQ2 12:1930Punt28–0
PITQ2 11:2038Turnover28–0
CLEQ2 10:11524Punt28–0
PITQ2 7:201389Touchdown28–7
CLEQ2 1:44964Touchdown35–7
PITQ2 0:34437Field goal35–10
CLEQ3 15:00832Punt35–10
PITQ3 11:07884Touchdown35–16
CLEQ3 7:2232Punt35–16
PITQ3 6:221268Touchdown35–23
CLEQ3 2:5732Punt35–23
PITQ3 1:3039Punt35–23
CLEQ4 14:52680Touchdown42–23
PITQ4 12:32476Touchdown42–29
CLEQ4 11:081259Field goal45–29
PITQ4 4:28415Turnover45–29
CLEQ4 3:1636Field goal48–29
PITQ4 2:51877Touchdown48–37
CLEQ4 1:0900End of half48–37

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield21/3426330

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nick Chubb18764.20
Kareem Hunt8486.02
Baker Mayfield530.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jarvis Landry58921
Nick Chubb44691
Austin Hooper711461
Rashard Higgins27280
Kareem Hunt11130
Donovan Peoples-Jones1280
David Njoku1170

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger47/6850144

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Conner11373.41
Benny Snell2136.50
Ben Roethlisberger100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
JuJu Smith-Schuster13191571
Diontae Johnson11161170
James Washington56720
Eric Ebron711621
Chase Claypool57592
James Conner55300
Benny Snell1240
Vance McDonald0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +54.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

1.92%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.9%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.08
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.78