Closing spread
GB -14
Total
47
Model margin
+4.2est.
GB perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
GB lead 11–4 since 1999
GB have won 5 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. GB are 12-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 18/29 | 316 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Starks | 13 | 49 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 9 | 25 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 7 | 15 | 2.1 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordy Nelson | 2 | 3 | 104 | 1 |
| Greg Jennings | 6 | 10 | 82 | 0 |
| James Jones | 1 | 1 | 35 | 1 |
| Ryan Grant | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 3 | 5 | 25 | 1 |
| Jermichael Finley | 1 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| James Starks | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| D.J. Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.90%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.3%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.29
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+4.22
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.