Closing spread
JAX -3.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+2.4est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.079EPA / play-0.134
- 44.0%Success rate37.6%
- -0.061EPA / dropback-0.086
- -0.113EPA / rush-0.213
- 7.1%Explosive rate6.1%
- -4.53CPOE-1.54
- 35.6%Third-down rate38.7%
- 56.0%Red-zone TD rate51.0%
- 1.33Points / drive1.50
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 32–16 since 1999
Meetings average 41.9 points. HOU are 27-20-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 28/51 | 332 | 3 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Hyde | 9 | 44 | 4.9 | 0 |
| James Robinson | 5 | 25 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Chark | 3 | 12 | 86 | 1 |
| Marvin Jones | 5 | 9 | 77 | 1 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 7 | 10 | 50 | 0 |
| James O'Shaughnessy | 6 | 8 | 48 | 0 |
| James Robinson | 3 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| Chris Manhertz | 1 | 1 | 22 | 1 |
| Carlos Hyde | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Tyron Johnson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Devin Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 21/33 | 291 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 26 | 85 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 4 | 40 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 8 | 25 | 3.1 | 1 |
| David Johnson | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Cooks | 5 | 7 | 132 | 0 |
| Pharaoh Brown | 4 | 5 | 67 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 5 | 5 | 34 | 1 |
| Chris Conley | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 3 | 4 | 18 | 1 |
| Nico Collins | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
7.00%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.6%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.08
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.79
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.42