2021 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

21·37

Texans

Houston

QB Tyrod Taylor

NRG Stadium · closed · astroturf

Closing spread

JAX -3.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

+2.4est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapTexans
  • -0.079EPA / play-0.134
  • 44.0%Success rate37.6%
  • -0.061EPA / dropback-0.086
  • -0.113EPA / rush-0.213
  • 7.1%Explosive rate6.1%
  • -4.53CPOE-1.54
  • 35.6%Third-down rate38.7%
  • 56.0%Red-zone TD rate51.0%
  • 1.33Points / drive1.50
  • 2.6%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 33–16 since 1999

HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.3 points. HOU are 28-20-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6HOU @ JAX34–31HOU
2025 · W10JAX @ HOU29–36HOU
2025 · W3HOU @ JAX10–17JAX
2024 · W13HOU @ JAX23–20HOU
2024 · W4JAX @ HOU20–24HOU
2023 · W12JAX @ HOU24–21JAX
2023 · W3HOU @ JAX37–17HOU
2022 · W17JAX @ HOU31–3JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–HOU
HOUQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
JAXQ1 14:11413Punt0–0
HOUQ1 13:411484Touchdown0–7
JAXQ1 6:39548Missed field goal0–7
HOUQ1 4:39555Touchdown0–14
JAXQ1 2:251380Touchdown7–14
HOUQ2 12:20859Field goal7–17
JAXQ2 8:07735Turnover7–17
HOUQ2 4:4238Punt7–17
JAXQ2 3:2126Turnover7–17
HOUQ2 2:1767Field goal7–20
JAXQ2 0:5930Punt7–20
HOUQ2 0:37469Touchdown7–27
JAXQ2 0:0800End of half7–27
JAXQ3 15:0035Punt7–27
HOUQ3 13:39622Punt7–27
JAXQ3 9:4738Punt7–27
HOUQ3 8:08968Touchdown7–34
JAXQ3 3:24460Touchdown14–34
HOUQ3 1:4836Punt14–34
JAXQ3 0:1537Punt14–34
HOUQ4 14:49738Field goal14–37
JAXQ4 11:56838Turnover14–37
HOUQ4 9:3939Punt14–37
JAXQ4 7:4157Punt14–37
HOUQ4 5:23619Punt14–37
JAXQ4 2:501290Touchdown21–37
HOUQ4 0:0500End of half21–37

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence28/5133233

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Carlos Hyde9444.90
James Robinson5255.00
Laviska Shenault Jr.199.00
Trevor Lawrence1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DJ Chark312861
Marvin Jones59771
Laviska Shenault Jr.710500
James O'Shaughnessy68480
James Robinson36290
Chris Manhertz11221
Carlos Hyde22140
Tyron Johnson1160
Devin Smith0100

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyrod Taylor21/3329120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mark Ingram26853.31
Tyrod Taylor44010.00
Phillip Lindsay8253.11
David Johnson3103.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandin Cooks571320
Pharaoh Brown45670
Danny Amendola55341
Chris Conley22270
David Johnson34181
Nico Collins1370
Rex Burkhead1260
Mark Ingram0100
Phillip Lindsay0100
Jordan Akins0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

7.00%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.6%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.08
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.79
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.42