Closing spread
GB -11.5
Total
49.5
Model margin
+5.9est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.061EPA / play+0.136
- 42.1%Success rate48.9%
- -0.022EPA / dropback+0.222
- -0.123EPA / rush-0.003
- 9.0%Explosive rate8.5%
- -0.05CPOE+4.71
- 34.7%Third-down rate43.8%
- 65.7%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
- 1.73Points / drive2.45
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 36–18 since 1999
GB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.9 points. GB are 27-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 26/36 | 246 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 4 | 46 | 11.5 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 8 | 37 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 7 | 25 | 3.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Hockenson | 8 | 9 | 66 | 1 |
| Quintez Cephus | 4 | 7 | 63 | 1 |
| D'Andre Swift | 4 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Trinity Benson | 1 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 3 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 22/27 | 255 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 17 | 67 | 3.9 | 1 |
| AJ Dillon | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Kylin Hill | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Jordan Love | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 8 | 9 | 121 | 0 |
| Robert Tonyan | 3 | 3 | 52 | 1 |
| Aaron Jones | 6 | 6 | 48 | 3 |
| Randall Cobb | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| AJ Dillon | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
1.33%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.6%
Expected total
46.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.16
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.86