2021 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

17·35

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 73°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

GB -11.5

Total

49.5

Model margin

+5.9est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapPackers
  • -0.061EPA / play+0.136
  • 42.1%Success rate48.9%
  • -0.022EPA / dropback+0.222
  • -0.123EPA / rush-0.003
  • 9.0%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -0.05CPOE+4.71
  • 34.7%Third-down rate43.8%
  • 65.7%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
  • 1.73Points / drive2.45
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 36–19 since 1999

Meetings average 45.8 points. GB are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7GB @ DET17–20DET
2025 · W13GB @ DET31–24GB
2025 · W1DET @ GB13–27GB
2024 · W14GB @ DET31–34DET
2024 · W9DET @ GB24–14DET
2023 · W12GB @ DET29–22GB
2023 · W4DET @ GB34–20DET
2022 · W18DET @ GB20–16DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–GB
DETQ1 15:00775Touchdown7–0
GBQ1 10:361175Touchdown7–7
DETQ1 3:45941Punt7–7
GBQ2 14:013-3Punt7–7
DETQ2 12:21946Touchdown14–7
GBQ2 7:221056Touchdown14–14
DETQ2 1:52635Field goal17–14
GBQ2 0:0300End of half17–14
GBQ3 15:00887Touchdown17–21
DETQ3 10:26850Turnover on downs17–21
GBQ3 5:531465Touchdown17–28
DETQ3 0:0710Turnover17–28
GBQ3 0:03619Touchdown17–35
DETQ4 12:42612Punt17–35
GBQ4 8:21620Punt17–35
DETQ4 3:56326Turnover17–35
GBQ4 3:3438Punt17–35
DETQ4 3:07859Turnover on downs17–35
GBQ4 1:4800End of half17–35

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff26/3624621

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jared Goff44611.50
D'Andre Swift8374.60
Jamaal Williams7253.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.J. Hockenson89661
Quintez Cephus47631
D'Andre Swift45410
Trinity Benson13240
Kalif Raymond22180
Amon-Ra St. Brown35180
Jamaal Williams33120

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers22/2725540

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones17673.91
AJ Dillon5183.60
Kylin Hill284.00
Aaron Rodgers461.50
Jordan Love3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams891210
Robert Tonyan33521
Aaron Jones66483
Randall Cobb33260
AJ Dillon1180
Marquez Valdes-Scantling0400
Equanimeous St. Brown1100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +11.56.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

1.33%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.6%

Expected total

46.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.16
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.86