Closing spread
HOU -10.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+6.0est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.091EPA / play+0.024
- 40.3%Success rate44.6%
- -0.059EPA / dropback+0.116
- -0.151EPA / rush-0.066
- 5.4%Explosive rate11.9%
- -4.62CPOE-0.14
- 38.1%Third-down rate41.5%
- 56.5%Red-zone TD rate56.8%
- 1.09Points / drive2.04
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 39.9 points. HOU are 10-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colt McCoy | 14/22 | 146 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Ogbonnaya | 13 | 28 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Thomas Clayton | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Colt McCoy | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Cribbs | 5 | 5 | 50 | 1 |
| Greg Little | 2 | 9 | 33 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Chris Ogbonnaya | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Evan Moore | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Jordan Cameron | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Jordan Norwood | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Mohamed Massaquoi | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 14/23 | 119 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arian Foster | 19 | 124 | 6.5 | 1 |
| Ben Tate | 12 | 115 | 9.6 | 1 |
| Derrick Ward | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Daniels | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 2 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Joel Dreessen | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Arian Foster | 5 | 7 | 26 | 0 |
| Kevin Walter | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| James Casey | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Bryant Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ben Tate | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
1.60%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.0%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.55
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.04