2011 · Week 9

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Colt McCoy

12·30

Texans

Houston

QB Matt Schaub

Reliant Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

HOU -10.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

+6.0est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapTexans
  • -0.091EPA / play+0.024
  • 40.3%Success rate44.6%
  • -0.059EPA / dropback+0.116
  • -0.151EPA / rush-0.066
  • 5.4%Explosive rate11.9%
  • -4.62CPOE-0.14
  • 38.1%Third-down rate41.5%
  • 56.5%Red-zone TD rate56.8%
  • 1.09Points / drive2.04
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 8–7 since 1999

Meetings average 39.9 points. HOU are 10-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · playoffsCLE @ HOU14–45HOU
2023 · W16CLE @ HOU36–22CLE
2022 · W13CLE @ HOU27–14CLE
2021 · W2HOU @ CLE21–31CLE
2020 · W10HOU @ CLE7–10CLE
2018 · W13CLE @ HOU13–29HOU
2017 · W6CLE @ HOU17–33HOU
2014 · W11HOU @ CLE23–7HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–HOU
HOUQ1 15:00982Touchdown0–7
CLEQ1 9:5011Turnover0–7
HOUQ1 9:40628Touchdown0–14
CLEQ1 7:11620Field goal3–14
HOUQ1 3:43535Punt3–14
CLEQ1 0:36617Punt3–14
HOUQ2 12:00771Touchdown3–21
CLEQ2 8:063-1Punt3–21
HOUQ2 6:3536Punt3–21
CLEQ2 4:55518Punt3–21
HOUQ2 2:4010Turnover3–21
CLEQ2 2:26615Turnover3–24
HOUQ2 0:0200Field goal3–24
CLEQ3 15:0033Punt3–24
HOUQ3 13:041278Field goal3–27
CLEQ3 5:45735Field goal6–27
HOUQ3 2:081147Field goal6–30
CLEQ4 10:351164Touchdown12–30
HOUQ4 4:47835End of half12–30

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colt McCoy14/2214611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Ogbonnaya13282.20
Thomas Clayton5102.00
Colt McCoy362.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Josh Cribbs55501
Greg Little29330
Benjamin Watson22260
Chris Ogbonnaya11130
Evan Moore22110
Jordan Cameron1170
Jordan Norwood1160
Mohamed Massaquoi0100

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Schaub14/2311901

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Arian Foster191246.51
Ben Tate121159.61
Derrick Ward6223.70
Matt Schaub300.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Owen Daniels34320
Jacoby Jones24280
Joel Dreessen22270
Arian Foster57260
Kevin Walter1150
James Casey1110
Bryant Johnson0100
Ben Tate0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +10.56.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

1.60%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.0%

Expected total

42.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.55
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.04