2021 · Week 2 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 71°F · wind 0mph
Closing spread
WAS -4
Total
42
Model margin
+3.6est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
2.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.141EPA / play-0.036
- 40.2%Success rate44.8%
- -0.146EPA / dropback-0.018
- -0.133EPA / rush-0.062
- 5.7%Explosive rate8.3%
- -4.62CPOE-0.08
- 35.9%Third-down rate38.3%
- 47.5%Red-zone TD rate59.5%
- 1.20Points / drive1.78
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 32–21–1 since 1999
WAS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 39.8 points. WAS are 24-28-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 22/32 | 249 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 9 | 95 | 10.6 | 1 |
| Saquon Barkley | 13 | 57 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| C.J. Board | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 1 | -9 | -9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sterling Shepard | 9 | 10 | 94 | 0 |
| Darius Slayton | 3 | 6 | 54 | 1 |
| Kenny Golladay | 3 | 8 | 38 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Kaden Smith | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Heinicke | 34/46 | 336 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Gibson | 13 | 69 | 5.3 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Taylor Heinicke | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
| DeAndre Carter | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 11 | 14 | 107 | 1 |
| J.D. McKissic | 5 | 6 | 83 | 0 |
| Logan Thomas | 5 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| Adam Humphries | 7 | 8 | 44 | 0 |
| Dyami Brown | 3 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Ricky Seals-Jones | 1 | 1 | 19 | 1 |
| Antonio Gibson | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.8%
Expected total
41.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.94
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.64