2021 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Giants

New York

QB Daniel Jones

29·30

Commanders

Washington

QB Taylor Heinicke

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 71°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

WAS -4

Total

42

Model margin

+3.6est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

2.6%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapCommanders
  • -0.141EPA / play-0.036
  • 40.2%Success rate44.8%
  • -0.146EPA / dropback-0.018
  • -0.133EPA / rush-0.062
  • 5.7%Explosive rate8.3%
  • -4.62CPOE-0.08
  • 35.9%Third-down rate38.3%
  • 47.5%Red-zone TD rate59.5%
  • 1.20Points / drive1.78
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 32–21–2 since 1999

Meetings average 40.1 points. WAS are 24-29-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5NYG @ WAS27–27Tie
2025 · W15WAS @ NYG29–21WAS
2025 · W1NYG @ WAS6–21WAS
2024 · W9WAS @ NYG27–22WAS
2024 · W2NYG @ WAS18–21WAS
2023 · W11NYG @ WAS31–19NYG
2023 · W7WAS @ NYG7–14NYG
2022 · W15NYG @ WAS20–12NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–WAS
WASQ1 15:003-9Punt0–0
NYGQ1 13:301271Touchdown7–0
WASQ1 7:3536Punt7–0
NYGQ1 5:57543Punt7–0
WASQ1 3:171390Touchdown7–7
NYGQ2 11:1630Punt7–7
WASQ2 9:47415Punt7–7
NYGQ2 8:181074Field goal10–7
WASQ2 4:091284Touchdown10–14
NYGQ2 0:2100End of half10–14
NYGQ3 15:00936Field goal13–14
WASQ3 9:0738Punt13–14
NYGQ3 7:31857Touchdown20–14
WASQ3 4:41833Field goal20–17
NYGQ3 1:30646Field goal23–17
WASQ4 13:351051Field goal23–20
NYGQ4 8:46748Field goal26–20
WASQ4 4:50275Touchdown26–27
NYGQ4 4:33514Punt26–27
WASQ4 3:13314Turnover26–27
NYGQ4 2:1633Field goal29–27
WASQ4 2:00940Field goal29–30

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones22/3224910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Daniel Jones99510.61
Saquon Barkley13574.40
Devontae Booker294.50
C.J. Board166.00
Sterling Shepard1-9-9.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Sterling Shepard910940
Darius Slayton36541
Kenny Golladay38380
Kyle Rudolph22250
Kaden Smith22240
Saquon Barkley23120
Devontae Booker1120

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Taylor Heinicke34/4633621

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Antonio Gibson13695.30
J.D. McKissic4102.51
Taylor Heinicke461.50
DeAndre Carter122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terry McLaurin11141071
J.D. McKissic56830
Logan Thomas57450
Adam Humphries78440
Dyami Brown36340
Ricky Seals-Jones11191
Antonio Gibson2240

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.8%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.8%

Expected total

41.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.94
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.64