2021 · Week 3 · Division

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Carson Wentz

16·25

Titans

Tennessee

QB Ryan Tannehill

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · 72°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

TEN -4.5

Total

47

Model margin

+2.1est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapTitans
  • +0.060EPA / play+0.025
  • 44.6%Success rate44.7%
  • +0.055EPA / dropback+0.092
  • +0.065EPA / rush-0.054
  • 9.8%Explosive rate7.8%
  • -2.41CPOE+2.33
  • 41.9%Third-down rate43.8%
  • 60.3%Red-zone TD rate66.6%
  • 2.35Points / drive2.15
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 34–16 since 1999

Meetings average 46.3 points. TEN are 21-29 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6TEN @ IND26–20TEN
2025 · W8TEN @ IND14–38IND
2025 · W3IND @ TEN41–20IND
2024 · W16TEN @ IND30–38IND
2024 · W6IND @ TEN20–17IND
2023 · W13IND @ TEN31–28IND
2023 · W5TEN @ IND16–23IND
2022 · W7IND @ TEN10–19TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–TEN
TENQ1 15:003-8Punt0–0
INDQ1 13:1032Punt0–0
TENQ1 12:081171Touchdown0–7
INDQ1 6:34433Punt0–7
TENQ1 4:39918Turnover0–7
INDQ1 0:11953Touchdown7–7
TENQ2 10:19875Touchdown7–14
INDQ2 5:563-3Punt7–14
TENQ2 4:06857Turnover7–14
INDQ2 0:49417Field goal10–14
INDQ3 15:001757Field goal13–14
TENQ3 6:26761Turnover13–14
INDQ3 2:3554Punt13–14
TENQ3 0:20629Touchdown13–22
INDQ4 12:56765Field goal16–22
TENQ4 10:201367Field goal16–25
INDQ4 2:58937Missed field goal16–25
TENQ4 0:5700End of half16–25

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz19/3719400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor10646.40
Nyheim Hines6254.21
Michael Pittman155.00
Ashton Dulin1-7-7.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Pittman612680
Nyheim Hines56540
Zach Pascal27310
Mo Alie-Cox22140
Jack Doyle12100
Parris Campbell2490
Jonathan Taylor1180

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill18/2719732

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry281134.00
Ryan Tannehill55611.20
Jeremy McNichols263.00
A.J. Brown133.00
Mekhi Sargent122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine44531
Julio Jones34470
Derrick Henry33310
Geoff Swaim34270
Cameron Batson11130
Jeremy McNichols12101
MyCole Pruitt1170
Chester Rogers1261
Tommy Hudson1230
A.J. Brown0200
Racey McMath0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

1.93%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.6%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.36
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.06