Closing spread
TEN -4.5
Total
47
Model margin
+2.1est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.060EPA / play+0.025
- 44.6%Success rate44.7%
- +0.055EPA / dropback+0.092
- +0.065EPA / rush-0.054
- 9.8%Explosive rate7.8%
- -2.41CPOE+2.33
- 41.9%Third-down rate43.8%
- 60.3%Red-zone TD rate66.6%
- 2.35Points / drive2.15
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 34–15 since 1999
IND have won 6 straight. Meetings average 46.3 points. TEN are 20-29 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 19/37 | 194 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 10 | 64 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Michael Pittman | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Ashton Dulin | 1 | -7 | -7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 6 | 12 | 68 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 5 | 6 | 54 | 0 |
| Zach Pascal | 2 | 7 | 31 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Jack Doyle | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Parris Campbell | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 18/27 | 197 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 28 | 113 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 5 | 56 | 11.2 | 0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| A.J. Brown | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Mekhi Sargent | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 4 | 4 | 53 | 1 |
| Julio Jones | 3 | 4 | 47 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Geoff Swaim | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Cameron Batson | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 1 | 2 | 10 | 1 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Chester Rogers | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
| Tommy Hudson | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| A.J. Brown | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Racey McMath | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
1.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.6%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.36
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.06