Closing spread
LA -3.5
Total
53.5
Model margin
+2.5est.
LA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.079EPA / play+0.082
- 46.8%Success rate46.6%
- +0.154EPA / dropback+0.183
- -0.037EPA / rush-0.089
- 9.4%Explosive rate10.3%
- +4.19CPOE-0.40
- 45.2%Third-down rate42.6%
- 62.3%Red-zone TD rate63.0%
- 2.37Points / drive2.32
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 29–20 since 1999
RAMS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43 points. LA are 25-23-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 24/32 | 268 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Edmonds | 12 | 120 | 10.0 | 0 |
| James Conner | 18 | 50 | 2.8 | 2 |
| Kyler Murray | 6 | 39 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Rondale Moore | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Colt McCoy | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 5 | 6 | 67 | 1 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 4 | 7 | 67 | 0 |
| Maxx Williams | 5 | 5 | 66 | 1 |
| Rondale Moore | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 4 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| James Conner | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Christian Kirk | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 26/41 | 280 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrell Henderson | 14 | 89 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Sony Michel | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Van Jefferson | 6 | 6 | 90 | 1 |
| Cooper Kupp | 5 | 13 | 64 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 4 | 6 | 48 | 1 |
| Tyler Higbee | 4 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Darrell Henderson | 5 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Johnny Mundt | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.9%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.84
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.54