2021 · Week 4 · Division

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

37·20

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Matthew Stafford

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

LA -3.5

Total

53.5

Model margin

+2.5est.

LA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Rams

Win probability

  • Rams
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Rams winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapRams
  • +0.079EPA / play+0.082
  • 46.8%Success rate46.6%
  • +0.154EPA / dropback+0.183
  • -0.037EPA / rush-0.089
  • 9.4%Explosive rate10.3%
  • +4.19CPOE-0.40
  • 45.2%Third-down rate42.6%
  • 62.3%Red-zone TD rate63.0%
  • 2.37Points / drive2.32
  • 1.2%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LA lead 29–21 since 1999

Meetings average 42.8 points. LA are 25-24-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6ARI @ LA18–16ARI
2025 · W18ARI @ LA20–37RAMS
2025 · W14LA @ ARI45–17RAMS
2024 · W17ARI @ LA9–13RAMS
2024 · W2LA @ ARI10–41ARI
2023 · W12LA @ ARI37–14RAMS
2023 · W6ARI @ LA9–26RAMS
2022 · W10ARI @ LA27–17ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–LA
LAQ1 15:00857Field goal0–3
ARIQ1 11:183-9Punt0–3
LAQ1 9:5227Turnover0–3
ARIQ1 8:57797Touchdown7–3
LAQ1 5:50975Touchdown7–10
ARIQ1 0:521175Touchdown14–10
LAQ2 10:4410Turnover14–10
ARIQ2 10:35526Touchdown21–10
LAQ2 8:44721Punt21–10
ARIQ2 7:2633Punt21–10
LAQ2 6:41863Field goal21–13
ARIQ2 3:221879Field goal24–13
LAQ2 0:0400End of half24–13
ARIQ3 15:00938Field goal27–13
LAQ3 10:15833Missed field goal27–13
ARIQ3 6:23964Touchdown34–13
LAQ3 1:141571Turnover on downs34–13
ARIQ4 12:051194Field goal37–13
LAQ4 3:38975Touchdown37–20
ARIQ4 1:1400End of half37–20

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray24/3226820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chase Edmonds1212010.00
James Conner18502.82
Kyler Murray6396.50
Rondale Moore294.50
Colt McCoy2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Green56671
DeAndre Hopkins47670
Maxx Williams55661
Rondale Moore33280
Chase Edmonds45190
James Conner22160
Christian Kirk1150

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford26/4128021

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Darrell Henderson14896.40
Matthew Stafford6213.50
Sony Michel3113.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Van Jefferson66901
Cooper Kupp513640
Robert Woods46481
Tyler Higbee46360
Darrell Henderson56270
Johnny Mundt1190
DeSean Jackson1360

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.9%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.84
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.54