Closing spread
CHI -3
Total
42
Model margin
+2.5est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.061EPA / play-0.087
- 42.1%Success rate41.4%
- -0.022EPA / dropback-0.077
- -0.123EPA / rush-0.105
- 9.0%Explosive rate7.4%
- -0.05CPOE-2.87
- 34.7%Third-down rate34.7%
- 65.7%Red-zone TD rate52.0%
- 1.73Points / drive1.62
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 28–26 since 1999
DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. CHI are 24-27-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 24/38 | 299 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Williams | 14 | 66 | 4.7 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 8 | 16 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quintez Cephus | 4 | 5 | 83 | 0 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 6 | 8 | 70 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 3 | 6 | 46 | 2 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 4 | 8 | 42 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 4 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Trinity Benson | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 11/17 | 209 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 23 | 106 | 4.6 | 2 |
| Damien Williams | 8 | 55 | 6.9 | 1 |
| Darnell Mooney | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Justin Fields | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Khalil Herbert | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darnell Mooney | 5 | 7 | 125 | 0 |
| Allen Robinson | 3 | 3 | 63 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.7%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.78
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.49