2021 · Week 4 · Division

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

14·24

Bears

Chicago

QB Justin Fields

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 72°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

CHI -3

Total

42

Model margin

+2.5est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapBears
  • -0.061EPA / play-0.087
  • 42.1%Success rate41.4%
  • -0.022EPA / dropback-0.077
  • -0.123EPA / rush-0.105
  • 9.0%Explosive rate7.4%
  • -0.05CPOE-2.87
  • 34.7%Third-down rate34.7%
  • 65.7%Red-zone TD rate52.0%
  • 1.73Points / drive1.62
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 28–26 since 1999

DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. CHI are 24-27-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18DET @ CHI19–16DET
2025 · W2CHI @ DET21–52DET
2024 · W16DET @ CHI34–17DET
2024 · W13CHI @ DET20–23DET
2023 · W14DET @ CHI13–28CHI
2023 · W11CHI @ DET26–31DET
2022 · W17CHI @ DET10–41DET
2022 · W10DET @ CHI31–30DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–CHI
CHIQ1 15:001275Touchdown0–7
DETQ1 8:491157Turnover0–7
CHIQ1 2:44689Touchdown0–14
DETQ2 14:511160Turnover on downs0–14
CHIQ2 9:3535Punt0–14
DETQ2 8:001123Turnover0–14
CHIQ2 2:59728Turnover0–14
DETQ2 1:0136Punt0–14
CHIQ2 0:3413End of half0–14
DETQ3 15:0038Punt0–14
CHIQ3 13:22677Touchdown0–21
DETQ3 10:33525Punt0–21
CHIQ3 8:1436Punt0–21
DETQ3 6:41644Touchdown7–21
CHIQ3 3:19660Field goal7–24
DETQ3 0:10875Touchdown14–24
CHIQ4 11:175-3Punt14–24
DETQ4 7:311353Turnover on downs14–24
CHIQ4 4:15735End of half14–24

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff24/3829920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Williams14664.70
D'Andre Swift8162.00
Jared Goff382.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Quintez Cephus45830
Amon-Ra St. Brown68700
Kalif Raymond36462
T.J. Hockenson48420
D'Andre Swift46330
KhaDarel Hodge11130
Trinity Benson23120

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Fields11/1720901

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Montgomery231064.62
Damien Williams8556.91
Darnell Mooney11010.00
Justin Fields393.00
Khalil Herbert372.30
Marquise Goodwin111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darnell Mooney571250
Allen Robinson33630
Damien Williams22150
Cole Kmet1360
Marquise Goodwin0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.6%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.7%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.78
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.49