2021 · Week 4 · Division

Final

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Derek Carr

14·28

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

LAC -3

Total

52

Model margin

+4.3est.

LAC perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Raiders

Chargers

Win probability

  • Chargers
  • Raiders

How each play moved the game.

Chargers winsRaiders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Raidersedge mapChargers
  • -0.001EPA / play+0.088
  • 45.2%Success rate47.4%
  • +0.089EPA / dropback+0.167
  • -0.161EPA / rush-0.075
  • 9.2%Explosive rate7.5%
  • +1.92CPOE-0.71
  • 36.8%Third-down rate45.7%
  • 53.8%Red-zone TD rate68.6%
  • 1.87Points / drive2.55
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LAC lead 33–22 since 1999

Meetings average 43.8 points. LAC are 31-23-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2LV @ LAC26–14RAIDERS
2025 · W13LV @ LAC14–31CHARGERS
2025 · W2LAC @ LV20–9CHARGERS
2024 · W18LAC @ LV34–20CHARGERS
2024 · W1LV @ LAC10–22CHARGERS
2023 · W15LAC @ LV21–63RAIDERS
2023 · W4LV @ LAC17–24CHARGERS
2022 · W13LAC @ LV20–27RAIDERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLV–LAC
LACQ1 15:001275Touchdown0–7
LVQ1 8:0133Punt0–7
LACQ1 6:2135Punt0–7
LVQ1 5:243-8Punt0–7
LACQ1 4:06519Turnover on downs0–7
LVQ1 1:5935Punt0–7
LACQ2 14:5038Punt0–7
LVQ2 13:2647Turnover on downs0–7
LACQ2 11:3437Punt0–7
LVQ2 9:40633Punt0–7
LACQ2 7:51765Touchdown0–14
LVQ2 4:1639Punt0–14
LACQ2 2:44969Touchdown0–21
LVQ2 0:2922End of half0–21
LVQ3 15:001158Touchdown7–21
LACQ3 9:01919Punt7–21
LVQ3 4:39736Touchdown14–21
LACQ3 1:44932Punt14–21
LVQ4 13:26452Missed field goal14–21
LACQ4 10:381058Touchdown14–28
LVQ4 5:20713Turnover14–28
LACQ4 3:14425Punt14–28
LVQ4 1:5143Turnover on downs14–28
LACQ4 1:1100End of half14–28

Box score

Individual performances

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Carr21/3419621

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Jacobs13403.10
Derek Carr362.00
Kenyan Drake122.00
Peyton Barber100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Henry Ruggs III36600
Darren Waller47501
Hunter Renfrow68451
Josh Jacobs55170
Willie Snead11150
Zay Jones1150
Bryan Edwards1440

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert25/3822230

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Austin Ekeler151177.81
Larry Rountree III11312.80
Jalen Guyton22010.00
Justin Herbert341.30
Justin Jackson3-4-1.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jared Cook67701
Keenan Allen711360
Stephen Anderson11340
Austin Ekeler35281
Justin Jackson44170
Donald Parham23171
Mike Williams14110
Jalen Guyton1290

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Raiders.

Half-point at risk

7.49%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.7%

Expected total

46.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.64
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.35