Closing spread
LAC -3
Total
52
Model margin
+4.3est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.001EPA / play+0.088
- 45.2%Success rate47.4%
- +0.089EPA / dropback+0.167
- -0.161EPA / rush-0.075
- 9.2%Explosive rate7.5%
- +1.92CPOE-0.71
- 36.8%Third-down rate45.7%
- 53.8%Red-zone TD rate68.6%
- 1.87Points / drive2.55
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 33–21 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.9 points. LAC are 31-22-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 21/34 | 196 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 13 | 40 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Derek Carr | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Ruggs III | 3 | 6 | 60 | 0 |
| Darren Waller | 4 | 7 | 50 | 1 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 6 | 8 | 45 | 1 |
| Josh Jacobs | 5 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Willie Snead | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Zay Jones | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Bryan Edwards | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 25/38 | 222 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | 15 | 117 | 7.8 | 1 |
| Larry Rountree III | 11 | 31 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Jalen Guyton | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Justin Herbert | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Justin Jackson | 3 | -4 | -1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Cook | 6 | 7 | 70 | 1 |
| Keenan Allen | 7 | 11 | 36 | 0 |
| Stephen Anderson | 1 | 1 | 34 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 3 | 5 | 28 | 1 |
| Justin Jackson | 4 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Donald Parham | 2 | 3 | 17 | 1 |
| Mike Williams | 1 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Jalen Guyton | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
7.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.7%
Expected total
46.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.64
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.35