Closing spread
MIN -10
Total
49.5
Model margin
+3.8est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Vikings
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.061EPA / play+0.018
- 42.1%Success rate41.6%
- -0.022EPA / dropback+0.102
- -0.123EPA / rush-0.111
- 9.0%Explosive rate10.3%
- -0.05CPOE+0.82
- 34.7%Third-down rate36.6%
- 65.7%Red-zone TD rate67.7%
- 1.73Points / drive2.13
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 36–18 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. MIN are 25-25-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 21/35 | 203 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Williams | 13 | 57 | 4.4 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 11 | 51 | 4.6 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 7 | 8 | 65 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 6 | 6 | 53 | 0 |
| Quintez Cephus | 3 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 1 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Trinity Benson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 25/34 | 275 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Mattison | 25 | 113 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 7 | 8 | 124 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 2 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 7 | 7 | 40 | 1 |
| Tyler Conklin | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Dede Westbrook | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| K.J. Osborn | 3 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Ben Ellefson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
3.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.3%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.11
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.81