2021 · Week 5 · Division

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

17·19

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

MIN -10

Total

49.5

Model margin

+3.8est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapVikings
  • -0.061EPA / play+0.018
  • 42.1%Success rate41.6%
  • -0.022EPA / dropback+0.102
  • -0.123EPA / rush-0.111
  • 9.0%Explosive rate10.3%
  • -0.05CPOE+0.82
  • 34.7%Third-down rate36.6%
  • 65.7%Red-zone TD rate67.7%
  • 1.73Points / drive2.13
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 36–19 since 1999

Meetings average 44.3 points. MIN are 25-26-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8MIN @ DET15–19DET
2025 · W17DET @ MIN10–23MIN
2025 · W9MIN @ DET27–24MIN
2024 · W18MIN @ DET9–31DET
2024 · W7DET @ MIN31–29DET
2023 · W18MIN @ DET20–30DET
2023 · W16DET @ MIN30–24DET
2022 · W14MIN @ DET23–34DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–MIN
DETQ1 15:001049Field goal3–0
MINQ1 10:34955Field goal3–3
DETQ1 6:301135Turnover3–3
MINQ1 0:541155Field goal3–6
DETQ2 9:50520Punt3–6
MINQ2 6:36873Touchdown3–13
DETQ2 2:20841Field goal6–13
MINQ2 0:4126End of half6–13
MINQ3 15:0032Punt6–13
DETQ3 12:46535Turnover6–13
MINQ3 9:58411Punt6–13
DETQ3 7:17615Punt6–13
MINQ3 4:29772Turnover6–13
DETQ3 1:1237Punt6–13
MINQ4 14:0636Punt6–13
DETQ4 12:01523Punt6–13
MINQ4 9:391053Field goal6–16
DETQ4 4:2864Turnover on downs6–16
MINQ4 3:3933Missed field goal6–16
DETQ4 3:17539Field goal9–16
MINQ4 2:3032Turnover9–16
DETQ4 1:56320Touchdown17–16
MINQ4 0:37346Field goal17–19

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff21/3520301

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Williams13574.40
D'Andre Swift11514.61

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amon-Ra St. Brown78650
D'Andre Swift66530
Quintez Cephus33380
T.J. Hockenson23220
KhaDarel Hodge15170
Jamaal Williams2280
Kalif Raymond0200
Trinity Benson0200

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins25/3427511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alexander Mattison251134.50
Kirk Cousins144.00
Ameer Abdullah122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Justin Jefferson781240
Adam Thielen23400
Alexander Mattison77401
Tyler Conklin23250
Dede Westbrook34180
K.J. Osborn34140
Ben Ellefson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +106.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

3.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.3%

Expected total

45.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.11
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.81