Closing spread
DAL -7.5
Total
53
Model margin
+7.6est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.141EPA / play+0.084
- 40.2%Success rate46.8%
- -0.146EPA / dropback+0.168
- -0.133EPA / rush-0.062
- 5.7%Explosive rate9.4%
- -4.62CPOE+1.99
- 35.9%Third-down rate43.7%
- 47.5%Red-zone TD rate61.6%
- 1.20Points / drive2.44
- 2.8%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 32–24 since 1999
NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. DAL are 26-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Glennon | 16/25 | 196 | 1 | 2 |
| Daniel Jones | 5/13 | 98 | 0 | 0 |
| Kadarius Toney | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devontae Booker | 16 | 42 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Saquon Barkley | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Daniel Jones | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Kadarius Toney | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Mike Glennon | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kadarius Toney | 10 | 13 | 189 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 4 | 4 | 55 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 3 | 4 | 16 | 1 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| John Ross | 1 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| C.J. Board | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Kenny Golladay | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Collin Johnson | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 22/32 | 302 | 3 | 1 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 1/1 | 22 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 21 | 110 | 5.2 | 1 |
| Tony Pollard | 14 | 75 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 4 | 6 | 84 | 1 |
| Dalton Schultz | 6 | 8 | 79 | 0 |
| Amari Cooper | 3 | 6 | 60 | 1 |
| Noah Brown | 3 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 1 | 1 | 35 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 4 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
68.9%
Expected total
41.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.90
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.60