2021 · Week 5 · Division

Final

Giants

New York

QB Daniel Jones

20·44

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -7.5

Total

53

Model margin

+7.6est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapCowboys
  • -0.141EPA / play+0.084
  • 40.2%Success rate46.8%
  • -0.146EPA / dropback+0.168
  • -0.133EPA / rush-0.062
  • 5.7%Explosive rate9.4%
  • -4.62CPOE+1.99
  • 35.9%Third-down rate43.7%
  • 47.5%Red-zone TD rate61.6%
  • 1.20Points / drive2.44
  • 2.8%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 32–24 since 1999

NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. DAL are 26-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1DAL @ NYG20–28NYG
2025 · W18DAL @ NYG17–34NYG
2025 · W2NYG @ DAL37–40DAL
2024 · W13NYG @ DAL20–27DAL
2024 · W4DAL @ NYG20–15DAL
2023 · W10NYG @ DAL17–49DAL
2023 · W1DAL @ NYG40–0DAL
2022 · W12NYG @ DAL20–28DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–DAL
DALQ1 15:00731Turnover0–0
NYGQ1 12:45515Missed field goal0–0
DALQ1 10:471049Field goal0–3
NYGQ1 6:1731Punt0–3
DALQ1 5:091044Turnover0–3
NYGQ1 0:3437Punt0–3
DALQ2 13:58465Touchdown0–10
NYGQ2 11:59642Field goal3–10
DALQ2 10:10314Punt3–10
NYGQ2 8:421283Touchdown10–10
DALQ2 2:51875Touchdown10–17
NYGQ2 0:3616End of half10–17
NYGQ3 15:00746Field goal13–17
DALQ3 11:141172Touchdown13–24
NYGQ3 7:1110Turnover13–24
DALQ3 6:57934Field goal13–27
NYGQ3 2:021068Turnover on downs13–27
DALQ4 12:229113Touchdown13–34
NYGQ4 7:341377Touchdown20–34
DALQ4 3:17718Field goal20–37
NYGQ4 1:53313Opp touchdown20–44
NYGQ4 1:2839End of half20–44

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Glennon16/2519612
Daniel Jones5/139800
Kadarius Toney0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devontae Booker16422.61
Saquon Barkley294.50
Daniel Jones393.00
Kadarius Toney177.00
Mike Glennon221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kadarius Toney10131890
Evan Engram44550
Devontae Booker34161
Kyle Rudolph11140
John Ross15130
C.J. Board2370
Kenny Golladay0300
Saquon Barkley0100
Collin Johnson0300

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott22/3230231
Cedrick Wilson Jr.1/12200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott211105.21
Tony Pollard14755.40
Dak Prescott263.00
Cedrick Wilson Jr.166.00
CeeDee Lamb144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
CeeDee Lamb46841
Dalton Schultz68790
Amari Cooper36601
Noah Brown34360
Cedrick Wilson Jr.11350
Tony Pollard44280
Ezekiel Elliott2321

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.0%5.7%7.2%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.7%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

2.25%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

68.9%

Expected total

41.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.90
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+7.60