Closing spread
TEN -4
Total
49
Model margin
-1.5est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.025EPA / play-0.079
- 44.7%Success rate44.0%
- +0.092EPA / dropback-0.061
- -0.054EPA / rush-0.113
- 7.8%Explosive rate7.1%
- +2.33CPOE-4.53
- 43.8%Third-down rate35.6%
- 66.6%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
- 2.15Points / drive1.33
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 32–23 since 1999
JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. JAX are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 14/22 | 197 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 29 | 130 | 4.5 | 3 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Cameron Batson | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Chester Rogers | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Johnson | 3 | 5 | 52 | 0 |
| A.J. Brown | 3 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| Anthony Firkser | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Chester Rogers | 1 | 1 | 26 | 0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 1 | 1 | 14 | 1 |
| Josh Reynolds | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Geoff Swaim | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 23/33 | 273 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Robinson | 18 | 149 | 8.3 | 1 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 7 | 28 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Carlos Hyde | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Jamal Agnew | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Arnold | 6 | 8 | 64 | 0 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 1 | 3 | 58 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 5 | 5 | 54 | 0 |
| Jamal Agnew | 6 | 7 | 41 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 1 | 6 | 25 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Luke Farrell | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Jacob Hollister | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| James Robinson | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.1%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.42
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin-1.47