2021 · Week 6 · Division

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

24·14

Bears

Chicago

QB Justin Fields

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 59°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

GB -5.5

Total

44

Model margin

-1.7est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapBears
  • +0.136EPA / play-0.087
  • 48.9%Success rate41.4%
  • +0.222EPA / dropback-0.077
  • -0.003EPA / rush-0.105
  • 8.5%Explosive rate7.4%
  • +4.71CPOE-2.87
  • 43.8%Third-down rate34.7%
  • 61.0%Red-zone TD rate52.0%
  • 2.45Points / drive1.62
  • 1.0%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 41–16 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. CHI are 18-38-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5CHI @ GB7–31GB
2025 · playoffsGB @ CHI27–31CHI
2025 · W16GB @ CHI16–22CHI
2025 · W14CHI @ GB21–28GB
2024 · W18CHI @ GB24–22CHI
2024 · W11GB @ CHI20–19GB
2023 · W18CHI @ GB9–17GB
2023 · W1GB @ CHI38–20GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–CHI
GBQ1 15:00626Punt0–0
CHIQ1 11:09958Touchdown0–7
GBQ1 6:4530Punt0–7
CHIQ1 4:25838Turnover0–7
GBQ1 1:131265Touchdown7–7
CHIQ2 9:593-3Punt7–7
GBQ2 8:03748Field goal10–7
CHIQ2 4:091025Punt10–7
GBQ2 0:1100End of half10–7
CHIQ3 15:00419Punt10–7
GBQ3 12:541186Touchdown17–7
CHIQ3 6:00835Punt17–7
GBQ3 2:2555Punt17–7
CHIQ4 15:001190Touchdown17–14
GBQ4 8:44775Touchdown24–14
CHIQ4 4:30815Turnover on downs24–14
GBQ4 2:14423End of half24–14

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers17/2319520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones13765.80
AJ Dillon11595.40
Aaron Rodgers7192.71

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams45890
Aaron Jones44341
Allen Lazard35271
Marcedes Lewis22170
Amari Rodgers11140
Robert Tonyan23100
Josiah Deguara1140

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Fields16/2717411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Khalil Herbert19975.11
Justin Fields6437.20
Cole Kmet100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Allen Robinson47530
Cole Kmet45490
Darnell Mooney58451
Khalil Herbert23150
Marquise Goodwin11120
Damiere Byrd0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -5.52.9%4.6%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.8%4.1%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

1.92%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.6%

Expected total

45.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.38
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.67