Closing spread
GB -5.5
Total
44
Model margin
-1.7est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.136EPA / play-0.087
- 48.9%Success rate41.4%
- +0.222EPA / dropback-0.077
- -0.003EPA / rush-0.105
- 8.5%Explosive rate7.4%
- +4.71CPOE-2.87
- 43.8%Third-down rate34.7%
- 61.0%Red-zone TD rate52.0%
- 2.45Points / drive1.62
- 1.0%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 40–16 since 1999
CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.8 points. CHI are 18-37-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 17/23 | 195 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 13 | 76 | 5.8 | 0 |
| AJ Dillon | 11 | 59 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 7 | 19 | 2.7 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 4 | 5 | 89 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 4 | 4 | 34 | 1 |
| Allen Lazard | 3 | 5 | 27 | 1 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Amari Rodgers | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Robert Tonyan | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Josiah Deguara | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 16/27 | 174 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil Herbert | 19 | 97 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Justin Fields | 6 | 43 | 7.2 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Robinson | 4 | 7 | 53 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet | 4 | 5 | 49 | 0 |
| Darnell Mooney | 5 | 8 | 45 | 1 |
| Khalil Herbert | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Damiere Byrd | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
1.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.6%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.38
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.67